The forecast of the dollar until the end of the year.
Since the end of last week in Ukraine, the hryvnia falls.
On the black market, the hryvnia is punched figure 27 hryvnia, although a week ago was worth 26 hryvnia for one dollar.
On the black market the average dollar exchange rate continues to show growth and is in the sale of 27.61 hryvnia, in the purchase – 27.3 USD.
Корреспондент.net interviewed experts on the subject of what to expect from the course in the future.
The current course
The national Bank of Ukraine set for Thursday, 17 November 2016, the official exchange rates at level:
– $ 100 – 2634,5680 hryvnia (+0,3339)
EUR 100 – UAH 2819,5147 (+0,1934)
10 Russian rubles – UAH 4,0817 (+0,0113).
Meanwhile, the dollar exchange rate in exchange offices today in the morning hovers around UAH 27,1 in buying and 27.2 to 27.6 grn on sale.
On the black market the average rate of dollar is now again shows growth and is in the sale of 27.61 UAH, the purchase of 27.3 UAH.
The average U.S. dollar exchange rate in banks on November 17 in comparison with yesterday has grown, too.
A position of power
The national Bank of Ukraine the cause of the weakening of the hryvnia one considers the political instability.
The Deputy head of the national Bank Oleg Churiy sure that the fundamental economic factors speak in favor of the Ukrainian currency.
“Although Ukraine continues to receive considerable foreign currency revenues from the export of grain and oil and steel prices and iron ore prices in the global markets resumed growth, rising political tension nervousness on the currency market, eliminates the impact of these favorable factors,” said Cure and warned that the situation could deteriorate in the event of political instability.
Economist Alexander Okhrimenko in the comments Корреспондент.net said that the national Bank and his close associates earns on currency fluctuations.
“The difference between the official rate and the black market is significant. The official rate is unrealistic. Currency sell only for their own, and then sell your rest, but for a different price. This has always been, not only when Gontareva,” says Okhrimenko.
According to him, while the growth trend remains, but the black market is very difficult to predict.
“The forecast is optimistic – at the end of the year will be 27, pessimistic – 30 hryvnia,” – said the expert.
Project Manager of the League of financial development Andrei Blinov also believes that the hryvnia in the coming months to fall will not stop.
“If the situation will develop in the same way as it develops and right now, it is quite possible that the exchange rate of hryvnia can fall to 27 or even 28 per dollar until the end of the year,” – said Blinov comments in the “RIA Novosti-Ukraine”.
Make plans for a longer period, the expert does not see the point. “But while the trend is such that during the remainder of this year, a month and a half will be a slight devaluation” – sums up the pancakes.
Devaluation – government policies
According to the head of the Committee of economists of Ukraine Andriy Novak, the three factors form the hryvnia: foreign trade, balance of payments and external debt.
“All three of these factors are positive, so there’s no reason for the devaluation, and there is reason even to strengthen. But the piece continues the devaluation planned by the government together with NBU. This confirms the fact that the government, when it submitted the budget resolution at the beginning of summer, still laid the dollar in 2017 27.2 hryvnia. Although at the time the rate was 24,5” – he said in comments Корреспондент.net.
Novak believes that it is necessary for the government to ensure that due to the devaluation fill state and local budgets and to satisfy the appetites of exporters, who are also the main industrial and financial groups, and the owners of the parliamentary forces.
“It’s an easy way for the government, but hard for the population. The forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate now to build the impossible,” – he stressed.