Clans I fired: What will happen to Brazil after impeachment

Кланы уволили Дилму: Что ждет Бразилию после импичмента

The original site of the Carnegie Moscow center

“Impeachment impeachment impeachment” – joke Brazilians. Which began last fall, the struggle for the resignation of the President of Brazil Dilma Rousseff was successfully completed, but the crisis has not ended. Brazilians weakly reassured that a corrupt government was dismissed in not less corrupt opposition. Vice-President Michel Temer became acting President of Brazil, but nobody can predict how long he’ll last. Because Temer is also one of the defendants in the largest in the history of the country of a corruption scandal “car Wash”, and the rating of the new head of state today is only 8%. Besides, he is a tough test summer Olympics in Rio.

News on topic: backhand: Why Brazil reached the impeachment of the President

The presidential countdown

If I be found guilty of violation of tax legislation and use of funds of state banks to cover the budget deficit, Michel Temer will head to Brazil until the next election in October 2018. 75-year-old Temer has always been a gray mouse in the government Dilma Rousseff. In international circles, he is virtually unknown. The eighth son in a family of immigrants from Lebanon, Temer worked all his life as a lawyer.

Кланы уволили Дилму: Что ждет Бразилию после импичмента

The Union of Camera and Dilma Rousseff began in 2010. At that time, Temer was the leader of the Social democratic party of Brazil – party-chameleon, which is over 30 years since the dictatorship, managed to cooperate with all governments, both right and left. After winning Temer, Dilma was appointed Vice-President. The relationship between him and Dilma were not smooth, which, however, did not prevent them to play again in one team for the 2014 elections.

However, in 2015, in the midst of a bucket of riots and street marches demanding the resignation of the government, Temer began cautiously to speak not in favor of Dilma. Official political divorce occurred in late March, when Temer announced a break with the coalition, Dilma and the workers Party. Shortly before the impeachment, he released his own collection of poems. Brazilians joke that one of the sonnets Temer had to devote his ex-boss, which coolly betrayed. “I boarded your ship, which was sailing without a destination. Me and you. You, because I didn’t know where they want to go. I because a lot of times know where I should search, but never sailed”.

Кланы уволили Дилму: Что ждет Бразилию после импичмента

In General, Michel Temer – a pragmatic politician, guessing the mood of the street and knows exactly what and when to talk. All the months of preparation for the impeachment Temer panibratov with the opposition right-wing forces at the same time promising to preserve the social assistance program to “Family purse” – the secret of the popularity of the workers ‘ Party in recent years.

Related news: the Senate of Brazil ousted President Dilma Rousseff

About the notorious “Brazilian miracle” – thirty million middle class created by high commodity prices and trade with China, as well as the disappearance of Brazil with a hunger map of the FAO, which is associated with sotsprogrammy “Family wallet” began to speak in the past tense. Over the last fifteen years, the middle class is severely degraded, its purchasing power has declined markedly. Populist “Family purse” looks pathetic and no longer a panacea for poverty if inflation was 10% and unemployment of 12%. Even Brazilian leftists say that the time has come to abandon this social policy. Today and the ruling workers ‘ Party, and the opposition openly admit that in this situation the reduction of the standard of living of Brazilians is inevitable.

Olympic threat

To economic and domestic issues in the near future threatens to be even and the collapse of the international reputation of the country. At the end of April, right during the ceremony of lighting the Olympic flame in Athens, crashed into the sea built specially for the Games Cycling track Tim-May – she walked along the picturesque coast of Rio de Janeiro. Three people died and five were seriously injured. The section length of 50 meters, fixed on the rocks at a height of 10 meters, did not survive the impact.

Кланы уволили Дилму: Что ждет Бразилию после импичмента

The mayor of Rio Eduardo PAES, a friend and colleague, the acting President of Camera for the Social democratic party, immediately flew from Greece to Rio, having promised to punish the responsible. However, the public is not reassured. How could engineers not foresee the consequences of the pounding waves?

Such a tragedy with fatal outcome at the Olympic venues under construction in Rio to happen almost monthly. Their main reason is the so-called regime of differentiated contracts (RDC). It was introduced in 2011 under the pretext of simplification of bureaucratic red tape in the construction of facilities for the world Cup 2014 and the 2016 Olympics. This clever mechanism gives the right construction companies to provide to public authorities only the most General project objects, without any specific estimates.

Related news: Rivaldo warned of the danger in Brazil, urged not to come to the Olympics

Instead of trying to accurately talk about the time, materials and cost of construction, companies need to have raw pre-draft. Mode facilitates kickbacks and cost overruns, breeds corruption, squandering of public funds and blatant hack. For example, the initial budget of the construction of the collapsed bike paths was 35 million reais (10 million dollars), but by the end has grown by 30% up to 45 million reais.

In Rio, for anybody not a secret that built the track Concremat company belongs to relatives of mayor Eduardo Paese – friend of the new President. The total value of contracts this construction company has grown 18-fold since then, as PAES became mayor of Rio. Between 2000 and 2008, the company signed 15 contracts for a total amount of 24 million reais (6.5 million dollars). After the election of the mayor Puasa Concremat rapidly signed 54 contracts for the construction of Olympic facilities, including the Olympic Park of Barra, with a total value of 451,6 million reais.

However, the Brazilians traditionally do not lose heart and not get hung up on unfinished objects for the Olympics. A couple of months before the start of the Games they bet on their own culture of celebration, the famous Brazilian hospitality and devalued by 40% real, turned quite expensive to travel the country in an accessible tourist destination. However, the IOC does not share Brazilian lightheartedness and casts doubt on the bold decision to hold the Olympics in Rio.

After impeachment by the IOC with Brazil added another problem: in less than 90 days before the opening of the Games, the Committee does not know with whom he will have to work at the Olympics, who will be responsible from the Brazilian side.

The IOC began cooperation in Brazil with George Hilton, the ex-Minister of sport of the Republican party of the social order. But in late March, Hilton resigned because of the decision of the party to support the impeachment of Dilma. The Minister was appointed Ricardo Leyser of the Communist party of Brazil, famous for his statement that in Brazil there is simply no factors that could hinder the staging of the Games. Together with the impeachment of Dilma Laser also lost a place.

Related news: Brazil’s Rousseff supporters organized protests against the impeachment

Now the IOC will be forced to work with a new team next sports Minister, who soon appointed by the government of Tamera. However, there is no guarantee that this new Minister will make it to the Olympics: and Temer, and many of his party members is also listed among the accused in the investigation into the “car Wash”.

The Union of the princes

While both the USA and Latin American countries refrain from commenting about the political crisis in Brazil. Is that a radical left-wing government of the “Bolivarian axis” – Venezuela and Bolivia – in open call the impeachment of Dilma’s “undemocratic coup”. The others try to speak neutrally, because I understand that raw material prices fell for the whole Latin America and they are in the country it could be repeated about the same thing.

Why Brazil was the first in this series, even ahead of Venezuela? Brazil is still a kind of Empire with a strong Central government, which throughout the history of the country controlled payments from the Central budget oligarchs feudal lords. Today, the Executive branch manages 70% of all national taxes because of what regional policy is largely confined to the fight for Federal money between the heads of States and mayors ‘ offices. In zero, when the funds in the budget were available, regional leaders provide full support to Dilma Rousseff. But the prices of the commodities markets went down, revenues to the state budget has declined, while the officials continued to demand the former volumes of financing of the centre. A strategic mistake of the Duo of Lula – Dilma was the preservation of such a system of financing from the budget.

Кланы уволили Дилму: Что ждет Бразилию после импичмента

In Brazil there is neither regional nationalisms, nor any prerequisites for this type of linguistic diversity. However, local authorities have been given enormous powers, and between them is a constant struggle for the allocation of public funds. Unlike the Spanish colonies, the Brazilian States did not become a separate country, Brazil was able to maintain territorial integrity through financial arrangements with local oligarchs. Now, when the state budget is no longer enough money on these agreements, deputies and senators representing the regional elite, voted for the impeachment.

Related news: the New government of Brazil decided to leave the portraits of the dismissed Rousseff

Regional oligarchs are pushing their people to the Chamber of deputies and the Senate basically with one goal – to beat out money for your region. In Brazil there are no real political parties with a clear ideology and program. It’s just a group of politicians, consolidating around one of the regional leaders, like josé Sarney, who is now 50 years controls the state of Maranhão, like a medieval feudal Lord. Even the largest and old parties, e.g. Social democratic, in Brazil is called the Union of local princelets.

Such a system could still work, as long as the income from commodity exports were growing up, but when commodity prices began to fall, began the inevitable difficulties. After the first mass protests in Brazil were held back in 2013, and since then the authorities have not managed to stabilize the situation. And impeachment here, too, is unlikely to help – the main problem is that Brazilians are protesting against the entire state system, and yet the country has not seen a political force that could turn that resentment into something constructive.

Elizaveta Nikitina

Source