Decide if all the money, and think about what is not necessary?

Если решают все деньги, то и думать ни о чем не надо?

Still no one policy has failed to unite Ukraine, to reduce the level of corruption and to make the crisis a national evil, a kind of external enemy against which to fight the whole nation.

But during the great depression, US President Franklin Roosevelt all it could do. By the way, the main trouble of 1933 in America, were banks. Millions of Americans desperate to get back their deposits. And then in his first presidential morning Roosevelt closed all banks, banned all of the country’s export of gold, silver, money. At the microphone he explained: “we don’t work with the banking system. I declare a Bank holiday, but I give you my word that every cent you put into the Bank, get back. Wait a little bit. This is my request to you”.

Four days were allowed to work only reliable and healthy banks. They had been promised government assistance and Deposit insurance. However, almost 2,000 banks in America did not open never. But people believe, and again suffered to Deposit money. At the same time Roosevelt had completed the preparation of the Program of saving the country. His “New deal” was the result of brainstorming of the best minds in America.

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But in these days only the example of constantly rising housing prices and the growing number of insolvent banks becomes clear: if the state is not engaged in the development of the economy and attracting investments, does not conduct effective independent monetary policy, but rather binds it to a foreign currency, then the economy of Ukraine is there, where floating money. And now our economy has become dependent and monopoly-oligarchic, devoid of its own sources of funding and investment. This was the result of the liberal utopia, imposed by the oligarchs and high officials.

And what is best for them is no liability, because their doctrine is completely absolve the authority from responsibility, he says, the market and money must all accept. Therefore, if we solve all the market and money, and think, and work, and take responsibility for what is not necessary. Moreover, during the period of Premiership of Yatsenyuk as his government managed to make large-scale mistakes (!), Yes, such that now hardly anyone accurately calculate how much we have economies.

For example, what to include in the “shadow” economy? And that in the informal, not recorded and not registered with the state authorities to financial-economic activity? Further – we have an illegal, unofficial. Moreover, and what is the percentage of “shadow” and the crime or criminal economies? Finally came to this conclusion: the scale of the grey economy and the scale of corruption – are interrelated. And the point put the question: tax optimization or offshoring refers to the “shadow” economy?

On this account the opinions of the experts diverged, because for some people it’s the skillful use of the tax legislation, but tax evasion is already a “shadow” economy. And now in some of these economies to go to investors? Incidentally, in this regard not long ago in the Verkhovna Rada, Tymoshenko was just talking about that today, there are generally no rules of the game. Not only for investors. And this is the worst. Yes, no one wants to have any conflicts, especially wars.

However, in recent time there are a powerful movement, formed the obscure vectors, and, having no rules, just no one in Ukraine and abroad cannot anticipate or predict what will happen next. In particular, the March of “residents of Azov” on Friday, may 20 under walls of the Verkhovna Rada once again convinced us that to solve our most difficult social and economic problems within the economy only through the efforts of our national elites already it is impossible, they moved into the category of political. Now they can be solved only by political means.

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Otherwise, as we are taught military history, to force politicians to this war. Even a small war, even a series of military conflicts and armed confrontations. God grant that the fire is no longer inflamed. This is the worst thing in the current moment. I am sure that this is of particular concern in the US and the EU. Therefore, I have no doubt that soon the Americans will firmly clamp the “egg” of our major officials.

Many years working with Western financiers and investors, understand the logic of their expected strong reaction. After all, if they will so easily forgive debts, thus they will provide carte Blanche or unlimited powers to further their plundering billions of dollars of loans, say, remove as much as you want from our pockets. But they, unlike our ordinary taxpayers, not used to being out of their pockets so easily stolen. In principle, they Yaresko showed us that for them, restructuring is when a debt is converted into other more severe conditions and with more pressure on the country’s economy.

Well, now they, and we, need harder to find a combination that will help to find a way of creating new rules in Ukraine. Look for ways to improve the independence of the National Bank, and also lowering the cost of natural gas for population and enterprises. Because of this the prospects for the development of Ukraine’s economy, not its inhibition. And banking business is only as good as the country’s economy. Therefore, the main driver of recovery of the Ukrainian banking system, I believe our economy, and a key challenge is not the struggle with the dollar, and the desire to make a local currency basis for entering markets on a stable level of development.

It a strong torque allow us to have low interest rates on loans, and most importantly – long-term financing for the real sector of the economy, i.e. loans for the long term. However, the more you will work the national Bank to refinance banks in the famous financial-industrial groups, as, for example, the group “Privat”, the less will be grounds for return on savings deposits in commercial banks, and the harder it will be for them to find in the domestic market stable funding base with low rates and for long terms. Why?

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Let us think. The larger the banking system will rely on temporary financial National Bank online, the more potential investors will feel the instability factor. And I note, by the way Gontareva is not new. It’s already passed and in Argentina, in Zimbabwe and in several other countries. And we all know what negative consequences it led to.

So my prediction is as follows: until the end of 2016 about 50 banks lined up to eliminate. Why? The authorities have no resources to recapitalize Ukrainian banks. Besides, NBU is limited and the ability to supervise banks. It turns out that the national Bank can not cope with such a large number of banks in the system, can not ensure high-quality supervision. What to do? In search of an answer to this question, the authorities seem to have chosen the easier way and started to concentrate on systemic banks.

Accordingly, will not disperse its efforts in a large circle of participants of the banking system. I think they will be able to maintain in a workable condition only the core of this system is a few dozen banks. Besides, we still don’t feel a nightmare due to the collapse of Ukraine’s economy.

Alexander GONCHAROV, the Director of the Institute for development of economy of Ukraine

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