Europe’s choice: How the presidential race 2017 in the EU’s impact on Ukraine

Выбор Европы: Как избирательная гонка-2017 в ЕС скажется на Украине

Angela Merkel, Francois Fillon, Marie Le Pen, Geert Wilders

Next year could be a serious challenge to the unity of the European Union. According to the conclusions of analysts Stratfor, the upcoming elections in the EU countries may lead to differences in the continental block and as a result, changes positions on a number of important issues. “Moscow seeks to take advantage of and in some cases to affect the dynamics of the European Union to undermine Western unity. Russia will probably intensify these efforts in 2017, to achieve their goals, such as adjustment or termination of the sanctions”, – analysts say the center Stratfor.

The Netherlands. The electoral race in Europe opens in the Netherlands: here in mid-March elections should take place in Parliament. According to the Independent, here in the struggle for seats in the Lower house leadership position is a right-wing “freedom Party”. The party of the incumbent Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte “people’s party for freedom and democracy” can be relegated to second place, and their coalition partners – the “labour Party” on the third.

It is worth saying that the leader of the “freedom Party” of Geert Wilders is an open enemy of Islam and is even under investigation for inciting ethnic hatred. According to sociologists, the victory of his party, which now predict about a quarter of the seats of the Lower house of Parliament, amid the immigrant crisis seriously strengthen the position of the antiislamist in Europe.

Also note that it is the “freedom Party” was the organizer of a referendum on the question of signing the Association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. The results of the referendum, 61% of the Dutch voted against signing the document.

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France. In April, the start of the presidential elections in France. They will be held in two rounds – on April 23 and may 7. According to a survey conducted by research company Harris Interactive, the main candidates for the presidency of the Fifth Republic expect a Republican françois Fillon and the leader of “National front” Marie Le Pen. According to the results of a poll in the first round for françois Fillon ready to vote, 26% of French people, while for Marie Le Pen – 24%. However, the final victory sociologists give Fillon, who, according to forecasts, will pass in the second round Marie Le Pen – 67% vs 33%, respectively.

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However, the victory of both candidates could lead to major changes in European politics. The speaker for the preservation of the European Union, Francois Fillon, according to the newspaper the new York times, however, repeatedly advocated the abolition of directed against the Russian Federation sanctions and cooperation with Moscow on a number of issues. He is also a supporter of the anti-Islamic policies. His opponent of the National front, more radical: Marie Le Pen has repeatedly urged the French to “divorce” with the European community and closer cooperation with Russia. Note that in March 2014 Marie Le Pen said the official recognition of the results of the referendum in the Crimea.

Germany: Another strong blow to the unity of the European Union may apply to Germany, where in September 2017 to be held elections to the Bundestag. The results of opinion polls, while the leading position retains the “Christian Democratic Union”, which is headed by the current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel. It now supports about 31% of Germans. Another 20.5% are ready to vote for their colleagues in the coalition “Social Democratic party of Germany”. A rating of “green” and “left” according to the newspaper DW, are at around 10% and 11.5%, respectively, which can provide them with seats in Parliament. However, not only they are opponents of “CDU”. On the background of what happened in Germany events in the society is growing dissatisfaction with the liberal policies of the ruling forces against Muslim refugees. Almost immediately after the attack in Berlin on 19 December, in which 12 people were killed and about fifty wounded, a rating of “Christian Democratic Union” fell by 1.5%. The ranking of the eurosceptic “Alternative for Germany”, advocating for an exit from the Eurozone, on the contrary grew by 2.5 per cent and 15.5 per cent. According to Bloomberg, this situation is associated with a record influx of immigrants and carried out by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel policy.

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By the way, the members of the party “Alterantive for Germany” has repeatedly stated about the need of reversal of the country “to the East”. “ADH” requires the repeal of all aimed against Moscow sanctions and restore normal relations between NATO, the EU and Russia; Annexation of the Crimea can not stand in the way of this,” Die Welt quoted the representative of the “Alternatives for Germany” in the Bundestag Alexander Gauland.

On the final scenarios for the development of the situation in Europe so far. However, we can already state that important issues can be reviewed in the new European leaders. “Now the question of visa-free regime linked to elections in the Netherlands. Exactly the same may be deferred to the results of elections in France and then in Germany. And for the new European politicians must be much more important than the question of values – a political analyst Andriy Zolotaryov. All of this can have a serious impact on Ukraine, because European countries are unable to radically revise their views on their relationship with the Russian Federation. But this does not mean that we must dramatically “shift the helm” and make the turn at ninety degrees from the EU. You just need to approach this issue from the point of view of their own interests, to be more pragmatic. Otherwise, we may finally lose its subjectivity in the international arena”.