In 2017, Ukraine will start a real “fun”

В 2017 году в Украине начнется настоящая "веселуха"

Americans like to say: “On Sundays our people believe in God, and weekday in the stock market.” However, during the presidential campaign a lot of experts have warned that in case of victory, Donald trump quotes on the stock exchanges to collapse, but this did not happen, on the contrary, in these days of exchange stocks are only growing. By the way, the total trading volume in shares on all 9 of the Ukrainian stock exchanges in the expiring 2016 didn’t even reach 1% in relation to the size of the country’s GDP. For comparison: in the USA is about 400%!

And how much of the Ukrainian budget loses from the failure to reform the banking system and the stock market? And what would it mean for Ukraine’s economy strikes its financial authorities in the banking sector and dip in the national stock market in a state of clinical death? But most importantly, how will rasshevatka this very difficult situation in the Ukrainian financial market? After all, the experts know what our banks. They are building a financial pyramid based on the pyramid REPO. And what sits today our national Bank? With a huge “shoulders” in these pyramid schemes. Monetary policy the national Bank conducted as if tomorrow will not be.

News on topic: Budget-2017. The main figures of the

Here and 19 December at a press conference at the NBU, said that not only we, the taxpayers, will have to close privatesky hole 148 billion, and the Ministry of Finance will release this astronomical amount of government bonds (t-bills). Thus, our financial authorities once again hard hit impoverished people, as to place government bonds – which means to take the tax from the population in the future. And God forbid, if there’s a collapse in the bond market of Ukraine, all of these pyramids will go to hell. That’s when we will start the real “fun”. And while the sensational decision of the government on the nationalization of “PrivatBank” – a vivid proof that in 2017 the government and the national Bank are preparing to instability in the Ukrainian financial market.

But I would note that the national Bank is, as before, rigidly and awkwardly trying to manage the expectations of depositors and clients of banks. What do you think about this from the point of view of market confidence in the banking system of Ukraine? After all, this nationalization of “PrivatBank”, as it is known, will be carried out for public funds, our money – taxpayers. I wonder how many tonight, December 21, laid a billion hryvnia for the “cut” 274 MP, voting for the budget in 2017, which after the first reading is almost completely altered and brought in a new version only in the “budget Tuesday”? And how many have displayed the most “sweet” of the assets of “Privat”?

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Unfortunately, the government strongly rejects our vision of promoting a collective debt restructuring with owners of troubled banks, while the banking system is already spilling. And why is it held before the crisis? Because stimulate demand through credit, or debt mechanism. But it works well only under the following conditions: there is someone to lend to or to whom to lend; this debt can be serviced by the real cash flow of the economy of Ukraine. In other words, borrowers of their income to pay off the loans. But now it’s just impossible, the worst is yet to come.

Now many of my friends are businessmen worry in anticipation of what our hryvnia to the end of 2016, will show the trajectory of the exchange rate. After the nationalization of “PrivatBank” the hryvnia will be a serious devaluation. Plus I would once again drew attention to another thing, and would describe the Ukrainian market bonds (particularly government bonds) as “MMM”. In this regard, for a long time and strongly recommend that our financial authorities to carry out reorganization of distressed commercial banks in soft, for depositors form. Otherwise, it is the inflation rate, the acceleration of the devaluation of the national currency, destabilization of the money market and so on. And how still it is necessary to explain to these politicians in the Cabinet and the Verkhovna Rada that the driver integration with the EU will not “bezviz” or their “Golden mattress”, and private business?!

So, ladies and gentlemen, first of all, start to create in Ukraine institutionally homogenous countries of the European Union functioning environment of business. Should be the same rules of competition, law enforcement and judicial practices, and much more that will minimize the various risks of national enforcement. However, the very rich by European standards, Ukrainian political leaders with its irresistible obstinacy in vyklyanchivanie “bezveze” for tourist trips generate incrementally without huge fears of their colleagues from the European Union.

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And how have some of our politicians do not respect themselves and even to humiliate explaining domestic failures and mistakes exclusively some intrigues of external enemies. No state in the world, which would not be enemies. But some countries are rich and strong, and in others the people live in poverty. Why? The search for the true answer to this question, possibly leading Ukrainian politicians to the understanding that it is helpful to think independently and make strong decisions to solve the terrible situation in the country. Or the brain just enough to steal?! And now, I think the Europeans are generally scared of our politicians, Americans also realized that with such a policy, which each other easily pass, not much to play. And Russia is afraid of the flames unforeseen disasters on their territory.

It’s just to explain the massive failures in state-building and economic development of the Ukrainian establishment. And the most dangerous – they do not organize around the state. See the future of their children and grandchildren outside Ukraine – home treatment, training, almost all of them – abroad. However, some of them have the experience of creation FPG on the model of the pyramid “MMM”, but that’s not enough to build a state with social mobility, which provides economic stability, prospects of development and the national goal of companies. Therefore, while the power will not come true statesmen, all attempts to begin the process of building a state will be doomed to failure.

Or the country will go a few multinational corporations and build their socio-economic model. For example, many years ago, the 30th U.S. President Calvin Coolidge wrote: “Taxes take from everyone a part of his earnings and force everyone to give part of their time working for the government. Government spending – Federal and state governments – are a tremendous amount to seven and a half billion dollars a year. This figure is hard to fit in the head. This is the total earnings of the five million workers who receive five dollars per day, for 300 days of work. If the government wish to get an additional hundred million dollars to their costs, these five million workers will have to work 304 days. That’s why I want to reduce government spending. I want the American people worked less on government and more on themselves.”

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When in Ukraine so would think the officials in high offices? Without realizing it, we are eating the well-being of the next two generations. That budget 2017 can be described as: everyone survives as can. And since the economic crisis in Ukraine will continue and in 2017, despite vigorous statements of the authorities over the past 2016 that, say, we have started from the bottom (it is true that ordinary Ukrainians in their highly contracted for the year, family budgets that did not understand), in General, the situation in the country will deteriorate.

This may blow up the situation not only natural, but primarily by political factors, because, as you know, we anything could happen. And, most likely, in 2017, the devaluation of the hryvnia will accelerate the growth of consumer prices. Let’s calculate, if the hryvnia weakens to the U.S. dollar by 1%, then consumer prices rise by 0.2% -0.3 percent. The following is easy to calculate that even a decline of the hryvnia will add to inflation of 6% -9%. It is expected a significant budget deficit-2017, lower living standards on average not less than 8%, the increase in the number of unemployed, the significant underfunding of education, health and other social sectors. And unfortunately, capital will continue to flee from Ukraine, because Ukrainian establishment already knows – the road leads to default.

Well, in conclusion, we can only remind our modern national wisdom in connection with the economic crisis the light at the end of the tunnel will be turned off to save electricity.

Alexander GONCHAROV,

The head of the site,

Director of the Institute for development of economy of Ukraine

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