Large grater. What happens in Ukrainian politics

Большие терки. Что происходит в политике Украины

The Verkhovna Rada creaked approved pension reform and voted for two projects on ORDO.

This occurred amid increasing confrontation between the two main centers of influence in the modern Ukrainian government — President Poroshenko and the Minister of internal Affairs Avakov, writes Valery Litvinski in issue number 37 of the magazine Reporter.

The Ukrainian Parliament demonstrated a reformist zeal when it was about traditionally popular before the election, the initiative about increase of pensions. The deputies and the government did not seriously argue about who exactly has defended the allowances for pensioners. In the end, not to offend anyone, agreed that it is the result of joint efforts of all — the President, Parliament and Cabinet of Ministers. The negative side of the pension reform politicians are trying not to advertise, shyly hiding behind the obligations to foreign partners.

When it came to electoral risky projects ORDO, from the former fuse is not gone. As a result, these laws were voted, but with tantrums and even with smoke bombs in the session hall.

It’s the carrot

Pension reform was considered key to the government, Vladimir Groisman even promised to resign in case of failure. The MPs has submitted to the reform law, more than 2 thousand edits. But in the end, abandoned most of them. The radical party, Oleg Lyashko, for example, refused his thousands of edits for the statement that they unblocked the process of raising pensions. In short, the promised allowances wanted to touch every. Bill hall got 288 votes, then Parliament was not long ago. Voted, even the opposition, no one wanted to be in the ranks of opponents of increasing pensions. Before the election, it hurts not profitable.

The President signed the law, and on 10 October it entered into force, and Groisman solemnly declared that higher pensions will be effective from 1 October. Increase do will affect about 9 million Ukrainian pensioners will receive from 100 to 1 thousand UAH increase. Due to the fact that since 2012, inflation was over 100%, that is, the prices have doubled and simply “ate” the pension appointed to it. Also cancelled 15% tax for working pensioners, will benefit another 600 thousand Ukrainians.

Then whip

The increase in payments to pensioners spend almost 12 billion UAH from the budget. It would seem that Ukraine promised the International monetary Fund to reduce the Pension Fund deficit, but on the contrary — increases the payoff. Where is the money?

The current increase occurs at the expense of future pensioners, who retire after January 1, 2018. Next year in order to receive a pension, the Ukrainians will need to have much more insurance experience. Formally raising the retirement age are not expected, but the increase of insurance experts call a hidden increase in the retirement age. From 1 January to retire at 60 will need to have been insured for 25 years, the minimum experience is 15 years. In 63 years you can retire with the experience of 19 to 25 years. In 65 years — with experience of 15 to 16 years. The threshold of insurance will gradually rise every year until 2028 will reach 35 years. For those who are 65 years did not earn their 15 years of service, would receive no pension, and social assistance. It will be paid from local budgets.

Missing the years of experience you can buy. For every 12 month future retirees would pay 16.896 UAH. But more than five years of experience in one hand will not sell. Studies in higher education and maternity leave will take into account in the insurance period, but not for all. Count the experience for students who studied full-time in the budget of institutes and universities from 1 January 2004 to 31 December 2017. And also for pregnant women and young mothers who were on maternity leave during the period 1 January 2004 to 30 June 2013. For all other study time and child care experience will not count or consider it in part, if the Institute or the decree came in the indicated periods do not fully. Retained in pensionable service entrepreneurs pay a single tax or a single social contribution.

Starting 1 January 2018, will change the ratio of insurance to calculate pension, it will reduce from 1.35 to 1.0. “The government raises the pensions to those who today receives, and for those who will receive pensions after 1 January 2018, their size will be significantly reduced. In the calculation for those who retire from next year onwards, the average salary will be calculated with a lower coefficient. Thus, the pension will fall by about 25% compared to current rates,” — explained to the Correspondent the expert of the pension reform Taras Kozak. However, officials say that the reduction of pensions it will not. Because with index reduction, increased calculation base — the average salary.

The reform will also be cancelled retirement for years of service. Grace retirement will benefit only workers in hazardous and difficult working conditions, the disabled, mothers with many children (over five children), as well as combatants.

In addition, the new law provides for automatic annual indexation of pensions starting in 2021. But in 2018, the modernization of pensions do not. And in 2019-2020 propose to carry out in manual mode — individual decisions of Parliament. But whether they will is unknown, especially after the elections of 2019.

Большие терки. Что происходит в политике Украины


Ukrainians will increase pensions?

The adoption of this law in the first place the struggle for the vote, rather than reforming the system. The pension system in Ukraine and remains in solidarity, this reform does not change, and this is its main problem. Ukraine is now home to 12 million pensioners and 26 million citizens aged 18 to 60 years. But the Pension Fund is carried out only 12 million people. That is, roughly speaking, the one paying the single social tax falls clearly on one pensioner. And that’s the problem.

In Ukraine from-for demographic crisis, mass Exodus of workers abroad and the shadow economy — working people, paying taxes, becoming less and pensioners, on the contrary, more. “We have long had to understand that the pension may be only one which man himself has accumulated. Unfortunately, this pension that we are talking about state, but rather, in solidarity, it is less and less able to provide a person in old age. The joint system should be replaced regular social allowance, and the pension should go only with the savings of a person and the government should explain to people that money is not and will not” — said the President of the pension reform Academy Oleg Likhovid.

When Ukraine will start to work cumulative pension system, which is used worldwide, and running if at all, the law clearly does not meet.

Ground for conversation

However, even in this form, the pension reform meets the international monetary Fund. Intensified work on implementation of other IMF requirements. The truth is the words, and without a kick from the West has not done. The government finally spoke about the real need of creating an anti-corruption court, although more recently President Poroshenko talked about the fact that this court in no other developed country in the world, and do we need anti-corruption chamber. But the hard conclusions of the Venice Commission changed the rhetoric of power. Himself Poroshenko said he was ready to introduce a bill to create an anti-corruption court in Ukraine, but would also parallel the formation of anti-corruption chamber in the Supreme Court. To develop a new bill, the President suggested deputies to establish a working group. However, the leader of the presidential faction in Parliament Artur Gerasimov has said that the new law on anti-corruption court, which took into account the comments of the Venice Commission will soon be presented in Parliament.

From the beacons of the IMF to Ukraine have not executed a price increase for gas for the population and privatization. However, Finance Minister Oleksandr danylyuk went to the United States to agree on a formula for calculating gas prices. In the United States the Minister hoped to receive next IMF tranche before end of 2017. However, experts are sure to 2018 tranche of Ukraine is no longer seen.

Laws external use

The performance of other obligations to the Western partners was devoted to voting for the so-called laws ORDA. With the idea of the law on reintegration of Donetsk and Luhansk regions the government was running more in 2015. In the end, the discussions within the ruling coalition laws were two. Everything was done according to the classical scheme of the last years that worked, by the way, in the case of pension reform, offered provisionally winning solution, which is widely touted by politicians and covers of unpopular norms. The role of conditional #Peremoga was allotted to the recognition of Russia as a country-occupier, and #zrada — was to extend the law on the special status of Donbass, which was due to expire October 18, 2017. The validity of the law, which did not work? Yes, it is such a Ukrainian politician.

“We support the efforts of the Verkhovna Rada to extend the special status that will allow you to resolve the conflict in the East of Ukraine”, — such message was first published, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, and soon the German Embassy. The authorities explain that without extending the law, which never worked, Russia in negotiations with the West to be blamed Ukraine in the rejection of the implementation of the Minsk agreements and would require the lifting of international sanctions. And Ukraine formally confirms readiness to fulfill its part of obligations under the Minsk. And for the lifting of sanctions no reason. So a few hours after the message the American Embassy Poroshenko submitted to the Parliament a law on the continuation of special government order in Donbas till 18 Oct 2019.

Большие терки. Что происходит в политике Украины


Smoke bomb in Parliament

But former diplomat Bohdan Yaremenko believes that the authorities are speculating the issue of the alleged dependent extension of the law on the special status of Donbass to maintain sanctions against Russia. “The United States believes the basis for the sanctions against Russia Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, and not Russia’s failure to implement the Minsk agreements. The meaning of the US law on sanctions in countering the aggression of Moscow,” — said Yaremenko. A statement from the U.S. Embassy about supporting special status, according to Yaremenko, suggests that the U.S. has not formulated an alternative vision of solving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and therefore support the current format.

The need for the adoption by Ukraine of the law on the special status of the occupied territories prescribed in the Minsk agreements. It was adopted by Rada in September 2014, in closed session, off even Board for a vote. So politicians have avoided public demonstration of their support for the law, which, inter alia, the prevention of criminal liability and punishment “participants of events in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” or, for example, the holding of local elections, the appointment of prosecutors and judges in coordination with the local authorities and the creation of groups of “people’s militia”. Though the provisions of the law and do not work, their very content — a good reason for demarches, hysteria and righteous indignation.

Therefore, to prescribe renewal of dubious law originally wanted as part of another project on de-occupation and reintegration of Donbass. Also, the law was supposed to fix the priority of execution of the security provisions of the Minsk agreement.

But the popular front has proposed to submitted were two different projects, one about the validity of the law on the special status, the second on the reintegration of Donbass. After the promulgation of the bill on the reintegration of the fact that it contained a reference to the Minsk agreements, has caused a storm of protest in Parliament, and any reference to Minsk in the end, the document was withdrawn.

Voting for the project because of blocking the rostrum and the incident with the smoke bomb lasted for two days, but in the end it was effective. The law on reintegration are declarative in nature and only adopted in the first reading. Yes, he first recognizes Russia as aggressor, and it places the responsibility for the situation in the occupied territories. This power was mostly covered in public discussions. But it says nothing about the Crimea. Ahead of the second reading and the fight will be serious. Including about terminology: the word “war” in the document.

It is clear that full control over what is happening in the East of the country will be in the hands of the Mat — or rather, the joint operations staff of the Armed forces of Ukraine to counter the aggression. It will be controlled by all the security forces in the Donbass, the Ukrainian armed forces and the security service, and now under the control of the Ministry of interior Natspolitsiya, National guard and State emergency service.

The establishment of the headquarters means the increased role of the President and a reduced role of the Minister of internal Affairs “Donetsk” Affairs. Observers called the rivalry between Poroshenko and Avakov key domestic political conflict. Especially after the attempted dismissal of the chief of staff Viktor Muzhenko in connection with a fire in warehouses of ammunition in Kalinovka of Vinnytsia region.

Troubled not only by the Pro-government ranks. The platform of the opposition want to create, even within the Opposition bloc. Of the party members rebelled against the constant support of Pro-government laws, it is now on a regular basis engaged in ABOUT. Announced its withdrawal from the party Mikhail Dobkin — a minute, a presidential candidate from the opposition bloc in the last election. And about the platform of the opposition himself said Vadim Novinsky, a business partner of Rinat Akhmetov.