No holidays. Presidential candidates of Ukraine launched

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали

Western partners have cooled domestic enthusiasm about a couple of laws about the Higher anti-corruption court. Yulia Tymoshenko went to his third campaign for the presidency.

The streets stretched all and Sundry: LGBT activists, the guardians of traditional values, Chernobyl veterans, Afghans, miners and many others. Meanwhile, the country is approaching the shadow of a possible economic crisis, says Valery Litvinski in No. 12 of the Magazine Reporter.

After the Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on Higher anti-corruption court (YOU), from power often it was possible to hear the word “victory”. Fortunately there was no limit. As if there was this many months tyagomotiny. And even less years ago higher ranks not convince us that there is no corruption court of Ukraine and does not need.

But the celebration was incomplete until there was no reaction from the West. After all, still the main customer of the court. Reaction waited, waited, and came she not so joyful.

The IMF on the alert

After examining the final version of the document, who promptly signed by President Petro Poroshenko, the international monetary Fund has even released a special statement by the managing Director, Christine Lagarde. Of course, Lagarde is first noted that the adoption of the law on Higher anti-corruption court was very encouraging and is a step forward in the fight against corruption in Ukraine. However, there were also good but in the final law revealed an unexpected edit. Appeals in cases of NABOO, which the courts now, will be held in courts of General jurisdiction and not in the anti-corruption court. But initially it was different, and that new anti-corruption court was to be court of appeal for such cases. It urged the West to this situation were confident in the NABOO.

Why is it important? Because if you do not transfer the appeal to YOU, then all current high-profile corruption cases — concerning the former head of fiscal service of the Roman Nasirov, former Deputy Mykola Martynenko, the mayor of Odessa Gennady Trukhanov, “amber” deputies Borislav Rosenblatt, and max Polyakov, the fugitive of the people’s Deputy Oleksandr Onishchenko and many others — and will be buried in courts of General jurisdiction. These courts and now “slowly and reluctantly” consider such things. To combat this state of things has established an anti-corruption court. But this edit actually removes all these scandalous Affairs under its jurisdiction.

Lagarde pointed directly at the need to cancel this rule and return to the anti-corruption court to hear appeals against decisions of courts of first instance in such cases. Also the managing Director stressed that for receiving money from the IMF is necessary, “the timely implementation and other preconditions” — a solution to the issue with the price of gas and the adoption of a realistic draft state budget for next year.

In General, once this situation Ukrainian authorities to get out. Loosen the grip of the IMF is not going to. There is usually, in principle, do not give money for the year before the election to the electoral bonus not heard at their expense. But Ukraine may be an exception, because the money we need, first, to pay the debts of the same Fund.

However, the euphoria of the adoption of the law on Higher anti-corruption court quickly evaporated. And if another technical act on it you actually create a Glad quickly adopted, with the emergency, as requested Lagarde, changing the dressing on appeal, the deputies will not hurry. They have already prepared dozens of excuses why you can’t do it. Nothing, perhaps, this edit there to push through, so easy to cancel.

Sagging a dialogue with the IMF could lead to an increase of the devaluation, a slowdown in recovery of GDP and the loss of campaign points the current leaders of the country.


Short bench

Instead, the government has got a real shot at the only established anti-corruption system of the country. And again began the unpleasant talk of revenge. The fact that finally ended with the formation of a Commission of external monitoring of the National anti-corruption Bureau or just a group of auditors NABOO. Is this group of three. One appoints the Cabinet of Ministers, the Parliament and the President. The Cabinet and the Parliament, with grief in half, with their assignment handled. Were only waiting for the President’s words. It was hoped that after the scandals with the election of the auditor of NABOO from Happy when frankly ride all renowned international experts, Poroshenko will choose just a reputable foreigner, in order to demonstrate their commitment to the fight against corruption.

After all, in all public speeches the President does not tire of emphasizing that he did everything for the sake of anti-corruption system in the country. He could appoint the former auditor NEB auditor the FBI and the Deputy inspector-General of the United States Department of justice Robert Storch, one of the most well-known corruption fighters in the world, planted in Guatemala, 150 officials, including former President Carlos Castresana, the Italian Prosecutor, Director General of the European anti-fraud Giovanni Kessler, or a U.S. Prosecutor investigating corruption of the Russian oligarchs Thomas Not. But instead Poroshenko chose his close ally Pavlo Zhebrivskyi. For the sake of it even had to dismiss the head of the Donetsk regional military-civil administration.

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали

Zhebrivskyi – faithful ally of the President

Talking about this appointment? First, the President once again gives priority to personal loyalty and devotion of candidates for high office, not professional qualities. Zhebrivskyi cooperates with Poroshenko since the early 2000s, one of the first political projects of the current President of the Solidarity party. Zhebrivskyi have no own opinion, he is not an independent figure, he is dependent on the President, all to listen to him and follow his instructions. Is there any hope for objective findings of such auditor, the question rather rhetorical. Secondly, this appointment confirms not that short, and catastrophically short the bench. Thirdly, and I say this most of all, the purpose of Zhebrivskyi — risk for NABOO. The importance of auditing is that only the results of his findings to dismiss the Director of the Bureau. Thus, having controlled the audit, it is possible to provide the current Director of the NABOO Artem Sytnik political pressure or even to replace it with a more loyal figure.

Anti-corruption activists say that the appointment Zhebrivskyi, in principle, contrary to law. He has no experience in law enforcement or judicial authorities abroad or in international organizations. And it is a requirement for the auditor NABOO. The same discrepancy has already been pointed out in the Bureau. Public anti-corruption organizations provide for the possibility of judicial review of the appointment Zhebrivskyi.

By the way, zhebrivskyi from January to June 2015, has led the office of the Prosecutor General for investigation of corruption crimes committed by high-ranking officials. Call at least one crime, which opened this office during the work Zhebrivskyi? We don’t.

Agenda pre-election campaign: the populist vs the realists, the predators against the Jedi. To win, the Jedi will have moderate appetites to stick to the budget and tariffs of natural monopolies.


New course BYT

In addition to attacking corruption, power grabs and other problems. For example, a major activity was developed by Yulia Tymoshenko — at the moment of her hard mold presidential frontrunner. She has already announced that the third time will go in presidents, taped the whole country is and presented his program. It is called is not particularly original — the new deal and the ideas of the great U.S. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt has little in common.

This is the “new deal” needs Tymoshenko for the conquest of the new electorate. His voter base Julia will not lose, but to win this is not enough, which confirms its previous negative experience of election campaigns. Therefore, Tymoshenko is trying to expand the circle of their supporters at the expense of those social groups who usually criticize or ignore. First and foremost, this is the most active segments of the population, the creative class, the small and medium business, youth. For these people, Tymoshenko is a populist politician of the old school, with a huge anti-rating. And she tries this way to get rid of.

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали

New course new Julia

How? Yet with bold new packaging, modern technology and the trending buzzwords. Introducing “new course” Tymoshenko told about the blockchain and synergy, 3D printers and innovation. Funny, that broadcast about it all it with a room full of her old colleagues, who are frankly bored or asleep during the presentation of the “new deal.”

Ideas Tymoshenko mass, there is a second: it promises the country in the event of his victory the adoption of the new Constitution and transition to a new model — without office. That is, she, if elected, promises to be the last Ukrainian President and to resign from his position. This is an interesting political move — “I am running for President not to be President to destroy this formation, want presidents, vote for me”. The leadership of the state, the idea of Tymoshenko, will take on the Prime Minister to call which will be the Chancellor and Hetman.

The main message of Tymoshenko’s just gorgeous as a powerful political manipulation: you may not like me, but then support ideas. She was even willing to agree to the sale of land, the truth is not complete, although for years she earn electoral points on the support of the moratorium. However, Tymoshenko is not a word about svergnutomu for Ukraine’s problems — the war, the return of the Donbass and the Crimea, army. But there is an attempt to saturate the speech of modern words, sometimes getting tangled in their meaning, and not to miss the opportunity to mess with the main opponents: “If we do not act immediately, unable to keep up with the world for hundreds of years. When other States develop methods, which gives the possibility to use nano – and IT technologies, printing on IT the printer [what is this?!] the entire city, we only build the stores for candy.”

To rejuvenate and to keep pace with time, Tymoshenko is trying desperately. They say it’s one of the strategies of the American political strategists who worked with Donald trump, and now advises Julia. She started a page on Facebook, where he announced his candidacy for the presidency.

During the forum, which represents the “new deal” to Tymoshenko appeared on the stage a young guy took his shirt off, holding the leader of Batkivshchyna’s hand and gave flowers. Why this was done, very few people understand. So trying to show that Julia is still very personal and still captivates the hearts of men? But the effect of this move was received — the number of mentions of the forum in social networks and online media in a matter of minutes has increased tenfold.

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали

Tymoshenko looks happy

While over creative attempts Tymoshenko laugh more. Though impossible not to notice — this election is her last chance in Ukrainian politics, so invest in them it is ready to the maximum, even if to do so would be to tell the grandparents about 3D printers. On the other hand, Tymoshenko is always a way out. Not come in the way of new modern and high-tech Tymoshenko, it will be possible to go back to KOs town and the stories of social genocide.

New extras: have something to answer?

The more that the audience for populist rhetoric is always there. Only on the third week of June picketed the Verkhovna Rada Chernobyl, the Afghans and the miners — for the return of benefits and the preservation of social handouts. So and actively picketed, even tried to take by storm. And it’s favorite themes UaA. The party immediately began to frighten the power of social revolt, because that she was the one that cut benefits, and now must repent. Where to take money on bloated social payments in Batk_vshchina, as usual, not particularly worried. Classic Patriotic populism.

The symmetric response to the activity of Tymoshenko on Bank yet. There own problems. For example, to enlist the support of a large business, to show him that President Poroshenko will continue to be calmer than in the case of the arrival of a new leader. So, no need to invest in some other candidate in the same Tymoshenko. So, it is impossible not to notice the flirting power with former regions the Opposition bloc. Parliament kicked the representation on withdrawal of immunity and prosecution of the three deputies of this political force — Alexander Vilkul, Serhiy Dunayev and Dmitry Kolesnikov. Prosecutor General Yury Lutsenko is indignant, but before August submission to the Parliament again will bring.

The opposition bloc has long supported the most important for power solutions in case of lack of votes. So it was with the election by Parliament of the auditor NABOO. The issue dragged on year and 23 no votes of opposition, usually all for any anti-corruption initiatives do not vote, would not dare now. The Parliament also did not consider the amendment on the establishment of a database of gas consumers, which would further restrict work of the leader of the opposition bloc Yuriy Boyko and Dmytro Firtash, obtained from the regional gas companies. Moreover, you should pay attention to the fact that Boyko can be seen more often in presidential media, in particular, on the Direct channel, and in the proceedings of the celebration of the first harvest and the laying of flowers.

The President understands who really has the political weight in the country, and trying to build relationships with all groups. And, of course, continues restoring order within the team. For example, the taming of the shrew, Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman. The head of government in recent times was very active and independent activity, it builds its own rating, generates meanings. Of course, this creates for him and risks at the beginning of June at a government meeting, he said that preparing provocations against him. Well, that’s just the beginning — growing other people’s ratings do not give sleep.

Meanwhile, Poroshenko continues to move according to plan: opens all opens, including individual sections of repaired roads, builds relations with the regions. The tactic is simple and straightforward — to negotiate with an influential representative of a particular region, majoritarian Deputy, to entrust him with the task of support during the election campaign. This has already been done in Khmelnytsky and Volyn regions. Work is underway in the Zhytomyr region. Do not be surprised that Poroshenko has appointed Ambassador to Armenia scandalous Lieutenant-General Peter Litvin — the younger brother of Volodymyr Lytvyn, the former speaker and the former head of the presidential administration. Poroshenko and Lytvyn senior has long-standing good relationship. Now Volodymyr Lytvyn — a mazhoritarshchik from the Zhytomyr region, where its authority is undeniable. Honorary reference for the General discredit during the hard events of 2014 — an important nod to the eve of the election.

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали

President opens section of road

Diplomats from the appointment of the Lytvyn bloc in shock. Armenia is an important country for Ukraine, which is needed now more than ever an active Ambassador. In Yerevan recently there was a change of government, there is a strong position of Russia, but there is a willingness to move West. Yerevan tense relations with Baku, which has shown favor to Kiev. And in such an important and complex region direct the person with no professional experience and just an incredibly negative train at home.

The theme for the HYIP

However, Ukrainian politics remain topics for their own publicity are trying to use absolutely no effort. For example, the traditional March of equality. In recent years these events have been saved from violence by the far right only tough police action. Eventually March over and over again is rather peculiar event at which to earn positive points is very difficult for both parties — fighting for the next round of grants civil society activists, and earn campaign points wing.

The state is obliged to protect the rights of citizens on any expression and any peaceful Assembly. Marches equality actively supported by Western partners, involving ambassadors, for example, the last US Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch, come European policy. Yes, for Ukraine this event is a kind of examination in democracy. Hence unprecedented security measures, hundreds of Marchers protects more than 5 thousand policemen. The result is a strange spectacle to see the participants moving as if in a cage, and then hiding to safely went home.

Никаких каникул. Кандидаты в президенты Украины стартовали


Pride in Kiev

But there has been no legislative activity, even those deputies who participate in the marches, the laws on the protection of minority rights in the Parliament do not contribute. In short, guile and showing off much more than a constructive activity and results.

Well, the far-right accuse the government of repression and violence, promising a tough response. In recent times arrested as many as 57 radicals prior to the beginning of March, accompanying the detention beatings and other manifestations of gratuitous violence.

Meanwhile, neutral-minded citizens complain that the government spends unprecedented sums from the state budget for the protection of a handful of activists and the hunt for right-wing, despite the fact that in the capital there is rampant street crime, burglaries and auto thefts.

Freedom to political prisoners

And while domestic policy busy launch, various street protests and race in General, several Ukrainians continue to die slowly in the prison of a neighboring state. Yes, that die in Russian prisons, and how differently, if Oleg Sentsov hunger strike for over 40 days, Mr Baluch about 100. While the whole world continues to enjoy taking place in Russia the FIFA world Cup football. Yes, President Poroshenko personally called twice in connection with the problem of Ukrainian hostages, Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the Kremlin, as usual, plays his games. First, allow the Ukrainian Ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova to visit political prisoners, and when she arrives there, she to them is not allowed. Now Moscow wants their Ombudsman first met with the detainees in Ukraine, the Russians, and then promises to open access to the Ukrainian prisoners.

Moscow harshly, “hints”: the problem can be solved for clemency on the part of prisoners that is not acceptable to them, as they believe that they are condemned for a nonexistent crime.

Hopes remain that during the world Cup Putin wants to show the humanity, to correct the image in the eyes of the West and let someone, but to rely on it — was a bad bet. Yes, the campaign in support of Ukrainian political prisoners were held worldwide, but this is mainly due to the activity of the Ukrainians. Alas, while a little confusing: football full Europe much more interesting.