On the hryvnia exchange rate is affected by the “black” economy – NBU

На курс гривны влияет "черная" экономика - НБУ

Hryvnia fluctuations strongly depend on the “black market” of agribusiness, says the NBU

One of the main factors influencing the hryvnia is “black market” of agribusiness. The IMF tranches are not affected by short-term fluctuations of national currency.

A significant factor influencing the dynamics of the hryvnia on the interbank market is “black market” of agribusiness. This was stated by Deputy head of the National Bank Oleg Churiy, reports Interfax-Ukraine.

“I would like to say one factor that strongly influences the cash market. We (the appropriate demand/supply – ed.) formally called the population, but we understand that the population there is not much, while the decisive influence of the so-called “black market” agribusiness”, he said.

The Deputy head explained that it was farmers and agricultural enterprises that are not or partially are part of the national economy, and fully operate in foreign currency. By estimations of participants of the currency market, the share of this sector is about 25-30%.

“It is completely “black” economy that works for dollars in cash, and we clearly see her influence in the month of July, when banks are net buyers of foreign currency were the net sellers, this coincided with the beginning of the agricultural season,” he said.

In the middle of winter, continued Cure, when it starts sowing campaign, this informal sector starts to sell the currency, creating the offer. “That is, there is a seasonal fluctuation,” said he.

As UKRINFORM reported, Ukraine, the allocation of tranches of the IMF is not the determining factor for the exchange rate in the short term.

“The IMF is not determinative for the exchange rate in the short term. This is a long-term program that affects financial stability, the ability of the NBU in some way to participate (in the auction – ed.) in the market to smooth out fluctuations. But in the short term we have not noticed that there is such influence,” said Curi.

Also on the hryvnia exchange rate is affected by the appreciation of the dollar on world markets, which is caused by outflow in the U.S. dollar by raising interest rates and tax reform in the States.

While CORI assured that the NBU does not plan to “tighten” the hryvnia to the dollar by the budgeted level of 30.1 UAH/USD.

Recall, the NBU on 28 August more than a penny has weakened the hryvnia – up to 27.88 hryvnia per dollar, compared with the previous banking day. In exchange the dollar rose by 10 kopecks.


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