Opinion: there was a month before the crisis

Мнение: Остался месяц до кризиса

Oleg Ustenko calls as soon as possible to resume cooperation with IMF

Oleg Ustenko, an economist and Executive Director of the International blazer Foundation, spoke about the resumption of cooperation with IMF.

The material is placed at No. 16 in the magazine Reporter on April 22, 2016.

Cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF is frozen from October 2015. If already now not to make the necessary steps for the resumption of relations, the country’s foreign reserves will start to decline dramatically. And not because the population will rush to buy foreign currency, as is likely to be justified by the NBU. But because Ukraine’s external payments, you need to manage.

In order to continue cooperation with the Fund, we need to show progress on the commitments made by the previous Cabinet. In particular, the increase of tariffs for gas for the population, as indicated in the road map. It was supposed to happen in April, but the government Yatsenyuk this step did not dare. There is another reason – agreed with the IMF reforms are very slow.

What can the new Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Finance to solve this problem? First, to recognize that the rate increase is not a requirement of the IMF, and the offer from the Ukrainian side. Secondly, to remove the special regime of the value added tax for agricultural producers who are pressing on them and pulls the economy down. Third, to reduce the level of corruption in the tax service and fields related to customs.

Thus it will be possible to create fiscal room for maneuver, to stimulate the economy at the expense of the state budget and thus to avoid the jump of tariffs for the population. This is the main task of the new Ministry of Finance headed by Alexander Danilyuk. I hope that he clearly understands it. After all, in his portfolio there is a maximum of a month. Not a hundred days, as his predecessor Natalie Jaresko.

The economic situation in the country will deteriorate incredibly fast, a matter of weeks. And survive without the IMF, Ukraine will not be able.


This material is published in number 16 of the magazine Reporter on April 22, 2016. Reprinting of publications of magazine Correspondent in full is prohibited. With the rules of use magazine Reporter, published on the website Корреспондент.net can be found here.