Regionals: the revenge

Регионалы: Возможен ли реванш

Opponents unwittingly helping former regionals to build influence and to prepare for revenge.

The party of regions is not going anywhere. Two years after the independence have political education, hastily cobbled together from the wreckage, — the Opposition bloc — the largest among all political forces rating, write Hollands Svetlana and Andrey Khrustalev in №19 of the magazine Correspondent for may 20, 2016.

And early elections to the Verkhovna Rada, despite the deep crisis of the coalition (it is not overcome, just frozen), decided not to, just because I am afraid of the revenge of the regionals. Meanwhile, the influence of the Party of regions — no matter how it was called — was not due to the machinations of neighbors and not a “conspiracy leaders”. Reporter understood why part of Ukraine stubbornly voted for “zlocinu gang”.

According to the poll conducted by Razumkov Center’s poll, the opposition bloc in the “individual competition” is gaining almost 10%, avoiding any party of the democratic camp is Samopomich, Solidarity, Batkivschinu and radicals. That is, elections — regular or extraordinary — sooner or later it will happen and revenge will be?

First a little theory. Ukraine has always been divided into two parts — West and East. About the history and culture of the word, just the economy. The West — woods of Bukovina, Rovno amber — that now at the hearing. And light and food industry, services industry, imports and labour exports. Hence regional economic preferences: high wages, little inflation — anything that stimulates the purchase of goods in the domestic market, liberal economy.

East — industrial giants inherited from the Soviet Union. Large enterprises, which manage alone not under force. But these enterprises with the proper organization of the whole country can feed.

Therefore the East always heard the rhetoric about jobs, a strong currency (the rate of which it is desirable to omit lower — order products of the giants it was easier to sell abroad). Here, incidentally, characteristic of the East the concentration of capital — just a few hands the main focus of wealth, all the oligarchs his fortune amassed in the East — and the desire for concentration of power. When the country is run by “Westerners”, as it is now — always split. They constantly argue and opposition to each other satisfied.

And “Easterners” are always solid, and if there’s strife, deep beneath the carpet. This is because the “Easterners” have political means to distribute their wealth.

After all, when all the tools in one hand, and the people became poor, easy to Maidan. Subjects will pick you up on the fork. Therefore, the functions of the “ideal” Eastern power just to force their rich people to share and not to give rise to revolution.

No matter how many waves of de-communization, in Ukraine there will always be people who will vote for this Soviet pattern. Even now. Even when there is a war, and the political force created by former one — another Soviet — nomenklatura, irrevocably discredited, divided and demoralized.

These two approaches to governance — and is essentially a two-party democracy, as, for example, in the United States. And in the US two-party system also was initially geographically determined. Was an agrarian slave-holding South and the Democratic party serving the interests of the planters. And was the industrial liberal North and founded by Abraham Lincoln, a fighter against slavery, the Republican party.

Either our Western or our Eastern model of management of economy is not perfect. For example, liberal“Westerners” who are willing to “feed the people”, to raise wages and social benefits, thus stimulating the domestic market, can easily bring the economy to overheat — when Viktor Yushchenko (“the Westerner”) and it happened.

Conservatives-“Easterners” can increase to limit exports and provide the country with foreign exchange inflows, but their people are impoverished, and the economy becomes dependent on the world market.

Approximately the last ten years this situation is terribly bad. Our oligarchs production is not upgraded, just squeezed juices from it. And now Ukrainian industrial products cannot compete with Japanese, Chinese — it is a priori more expensive.

That is, the alternation of East and West would allow the country not go to extremes. It would provide the state stability — it is a normal democratic practice.

But that’s democracy is young, and in these conditions, political competition is commonly perceived as personal enemies. What we are seeing. Viktor Yanukovych (“Easterner”) has put Yulia Tymoshenko (a stretch — “Zapadniy”) in jail, that is brought to personal. Now Yanukovych himself had fled, and his associates present the Democrats are trying to put the nation’s enemies. Yes, but these enemies can win the next elections. They do not hinder the attacks by the democratic majority, prevent internal discord and ideological crisis.

Stillborn Hydra

From a crisis — the matter is clear. After the revolution of dignity and the war in East Ukraine has lost large chunks of territory with the electorate of the Party of regions (up to 5 million people).

Swallowed by the abyss, and part of the assets of Eastern financial-industrial groups. Again, the moral press — Yanukovych graduated from the Board as something ugly. Plus world market — East of the profits of Industrialists, sponsors, PR, tend to zero. All of this, especially the loss of the electorate, gives the politicians a reason to say — the revenge of the regions impossible.

“The electorate regionals rasporyadilsya: the votes of the remaining voters pulled the newly-minted political force, like Our edge. Now the opposition bloc is gaining not more than 12-13% — against 35% and above, who were once the Party of regions. And how would the opposition bloc nor dreamed of revenge, in Union with him, no one does not want to go. But alone they will not be able to form a government, a coalition will be built without them”, — considers the political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.

According to the Director of the sociological service Ukrainian barometer Viktor Nebozhenko, the former regions and their followers has no chance of “conquering new territory”: they will not be able to form a stable position throughout the country. Now their electorate is confined to a few regions — Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhya, Kirovograd regions. “They were herded into ghettos and going out from there they have no”, — said the expert. He expects the support of the former regions in the elections in the framework of 5-10%.

The people of Ukraine got too strong an injection to be able to talk about returning to the political field regionals across the country

Political Analyst Alexei Garan

“The people of Ukraine got too strong an injection to be able to talk about returning to the political field regionals across the country — agrees scientific Director of the Fund Democratic initiatives, Professor of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Oleksiy Haran. — The restoration of party monster, which would dominate, are excluded. This is evident even in the Donbas, where the opposition bloc has a monopoly on power.”

According to Garan, the collapse of the Party of regions was historically inevitable: “It is a political entity existed for the authorities. It had no ideology, programme of stem (this, by the way, the problem in Ukraine — we have almost no software, of ideologically political forces). All crowded around groups of oligarchs, what you’re doing right now, striving to regain influence in the Opposition bloc.

Absent ideology was replaced by populist cliches about protecting the interests of workers who came from the Soviet Union, reminds Nebozhenko. “But it is very hard to put on a suit for five thousand dollars, to talk about protecting workers — that’s completely alien and incomprehensible”. Hypocrisy, which was constantly armed with regionals, played their cruel joke, the Guarani: “Key lighthouse, “THEIR”, providing regionals absolute electoral support in “their” regions, discredited leader of the political force. Yanukovych’s flight decided a lot. Even in Donetsk it is perceived as a traitor, he is not “your”.

“Regionals have destroyed their stupidity and greed! — do not skimp in terms the lawyer, the public activist Tatyana montyan. — They did such that even “concepts” can not be done. They rot and the coffin even those who sincerely supported. They wanted to spit on public opinion, electoral sympathies. They did not carry out any reforms. His savage greed and clumsiness they depreciated all of its assets”.

One expert calls the Party of regions “stillborn Hydra”. The predictions that this political force has no future, can be heard from all camps, including the actual regional

One expert calls the Party of regions “stillborn Hydra”. The predictions that this political force has no future, can be heard from all camps, including regional and actually.

However, there is reason to believe that all these predictions are only under the influence of the moment. And the situation is this: the opposition bloc is worthless political entity, without a leader, programme and ideology — picking up on the results of the poll the highest percentage among all parties. That is in the lead “automatically”, without making to win anything at all. The emergence of a new opposition bloc leader, and then updated and ideology — only a matter of time.

The disturbing legacy

“Those regionals who were the most strong, flexible and dexterous, did not leave politics is, as a rule, all the same rich nomenklatura. They are ready to disguise, cunning and treacherous: know how to steal so that they do not press charges, ” says the political scientist, former MP Taras Chornovil. — They are woven into the current government. They probably will continue to find ways to dig into the country’s economy to “suck himself off portion of fresh millions.”

In his opinion, this part of the regions to revive the party is not going to. The idea was to negotiate with the current regime, maybe even to merge with it. This had great potential. “Among the former regions are well preserved large corrupt, criminalized the types that are cleverly held under any political weather, — said Chornovil. — And the most troubling legacy of the Party of regions.

They are able to offer their services to the authorities, if they need it, to negotiate. To make the service, the demand for it very high price. They need to be very careful

The Political Scientist Taras Chornovil

They are able to offer their services to the authorities, if they need it, to negotiate. To make the service, the demand for it very high price. They need to be very careful. Now they huddled together in a group with the secret idea that will be useful to the authorities. They are experienced — nearly all of whom were in the last Parliament. And unanimously voted for resignation of Yanukovych, and for the support of the Ukrainian army, and for the election [Alexander] Turchynov, and [Arseniy] Yatsenyuk. They know how to steal correctly, masterfully, without the noise — so that none of them accountable to not bring”…

According to Chornovil, this is why today, instead of the Party of regions we are seeing in the political field, the parade of projects, hoping to work with the electorate regionals. Of at least a dozen, some of them (Our land, Revival, the will of the people) the next election is a very good chance to return previously lost positions.

But the Opposition bloc set up a much more aggressive. If he succeeds in the elections, “quasiresonance” of the party and the game immediately will join.

Success ABOUT prevents, in particular, internal conflict for influence over the structure I in at least two groups — “starodonskaya” and close to them, Rinat Akhmetov and the group of Levochkin — firtasha. And no matter who wins.

“They will gain strength in any case, — Chornovil predicts. — They will perform a number of fronts. “Donetsk” from orbit Akhmetov may even take a chance to recreate the Party of regions as a brand. Or can “tame” certain new political force, and the people still will vote for them.

The electorate of party of regions is not important, “Donetsk” or otherwise focuses on the individual in principle. See, in Kharkov went for the [Gennady] Kernes — and the fact that he moved to Renaissance, no one is confused. Vote for Renaissance. And in the liberation of Slavyansk voted for, to have someone sitting in prison for separatism “people’s mayor Nelia Shtepa”.

Unquestioning support

The electorate of the regions and their heirs heterogeneous, experts say. Among the current supporters are the ones who originally the CPU was disgusting.

“But everything is relative… On the background of what is happening in the country even notorious regionals seem at times Ukrainians geniuses of public management and strict altruists” — ironically Montyan.

In her opinion, the former representatives of Party of regions gaining the points where they are in opposition to the latter-day policies are unconvincing, even shocking or repelling voters.

Getting tired of social tension, insecurity, poverty, Ukrainians vote for those who promise them some stability. At the same time to remember that this promise was a myth and turned into a national tragedy, not everyone have the strength

Tired of high social tension, insecurity, poverty, uncertainty, Ukrainians vote for those who (as in 2010) promises them some stability. At the same time to remember that this is a promise, once given, was a myth and turned into a national tragedy, not everyone have the strength.

The second reason for the enduring popular interest in “the political monster”, as the Guarani, — good working method of “feeding” of voters, which for years was used by the regionals.

“The backbone of this political education is a business, fused with the power. A dangerous mix: wild capitalism and nomenclature, ” says Haran. Is polomoyechnye structure who live according to the formula: “You support us — we’ll give you a piece from his table, “You vote for us — we are provide you some benefits.”

Finally, the core electorate of the party of regions is the mental “their” people. Those who continued to believe that political power of their own, and the rest strangers, in spite of everything, even the flight of Yanukovych.

“The electorate does not “take” nor Tuk Moskal, in Luhansk, nor zhebrivskyi in Donetsk, — said Chornovil. — The slogan of the party of regions vote for her — they’ll protect you! — continues to work in the new conditions. And they vote for their own. This must be considered and politicians, and the government doesn’t want to lose this part of the population. In the East and in the South still vote for the Party of regions will vote. Neither is trying to make [Mikhail] Saakashvili, Odessa cast their votes former regional [Gennady] Trukhanov, no matter how rude Yury Vilkul as mayor, for him — the vast majority. We have already “lost” Mariupol, which is entirely given over Akhmetov. We are losing Cherkasy oblast”and so forth.

According to Chornovil, the Party of regions for Ukraine — a necessary evil. The current government and the democratic forces in the opposition need to properly build a policy to not allow them to grow

According to Chornovil, the Party of regions for Ukraine — a kind of necessary evil. The current government and the democratic forces in the opposition need to properly build a policy to not allow the regionals to increase.

Released from the stall

“Representatives of the former Party of regions (all falsely) demonstrate that they are outcasts, they do not, he does not exist, — said Chornovil. — In this scenario new political forces, which are formed on the basis of the regionals, but have a constructive attitude, will not unite with the Democrats (for example, Solidarity), and with the opposition bloc. It will be threatening the Union.

Other experts also believe that the best scenario which would interfere with the regionals to rise, is one in which a former Party of regions will be the donor personnel to other political forces. Especially that “staff” is still the party in power very mixed and even maloberti with each other, said Fesenko.

Range: Terry rabid Pro-Russian regions-hardened separatists and corrupt officials — to the average representative small and medium businesses and business leaders who engage in the part of the Party of regions to make it easier to conduct business or because all the single administrative “whip” from the center of pounding the “stall” as they called themselves the regionals his polutorapolnye.

“As soon as the situation has changed, many have left the ranks of the regionals, because it was alien to their political force, ” says Fesenko. — For example, mayors of cities, which then had to be “in the stall”, now konsolidiruyutsya political education in Our region. Someone went to Renaissance. Someone looking for himself in other political force. They are ready for cooperation and constructive. You should use it. Not all to smear a black paint”.

However, to make it easy. The current coalition in Parliament, accused that to promote their bills missing votes she receives from the Renaissance of the party — parliamentary group, put together by the heirs of the Party of regions. That the President agrees with the Opposition bloc, he was accused a few months ago, when there was a question about the need to change the Constitution for the implementation of Minsk agreements.

In one word, all in a row former regions continue to marginalize. And this only strengthens their ranks.

***

This material is published in №19 of the magazine Correspondent for may 20, 2016. Reprinting of publications of magazine Correspondent in full is prohibited. The rules of use of materials of the journal Correspondent, published on the website Корреспондент.net can be found here.

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