The business expects the dollar to 29 UAH – NBU

Бизнес ожидает доллар по 29 грн – НБУ

The national Bank interviewed Ukrainian businessmen

The national Bank of Ukraine conducted a survey among 670 companies, with the result that found that business in 2018, expects inflation at 10.4% and the hryvnia 29 UAH/USD.

The business in Ukraine will be in 2018 inflation at 10.4% and the hryvnia 29 UAH/USD. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of managers conducted by the National Bank.

As noted, the business keeps optimistic about the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine in 2018.

In particular, the rise in consumer prices during this period is expected to reach 10.4% (in the 3rd quarter of the expected 10% growth).

At the same time, managers of enterprises expect faster output growth of goods and services in Ukraine.

As in the 3rd quarter, 4 out of 10 respondents predict that the rise in consumer prices in the next 12 months will not exceed 9% or even lower.

These business expectations were primarily due to the situation on the currency market – 78% of respondents believe this is a key factor.

This business factor has retained its importance on the background of deterioration of devaluation expectations.

Due to increased fluctuations of the hryvnia exchange rate in the period of the survey (November-December 2017), the share of respondents expecting a weakening of the national currency in the next 12 months, increased to 88.5% (from 79,4% in the 3rd quarter).

The majority of respondents (59,6%) predicts that the exchange rate will exceed 29 UAH/USD, the average exchange rate in 12 months – 29,30 UAH/USD (in the 3rd quarter – 28,46 UAH/USD).

At the same time, compared with previous surveys in determining inflation expectations has increased the influence of income level and social expenditure.

Seventh consecutive quarter the business expects strong growth in production volumes in General in Ukraine.

The most optimistic representatives of the companies of the processing industry, trade, companies of the segment of electricity and water, as well as agriculture and processing industry.

As a result, business Ukraine continues to expect a high level of business activity – business expectations index (IDO) amounts to 115.2% (in the 3rd quarter – 117,4%).

The survey was conducted from 3 November to 5 December 2017.

The survey polled 670 companies from 22 regions (excluding the temporarily occupied territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the Donetsk and Lugansk regions) that represent the economy by main types of activities, forms of ownership, size by number of employees.

Recall that in Ukraine in 2017, inflation accelerated compared with the previous year from 12.4% to 13.7%.