The inevitable decline. The hryvnia in the autumn of 2019

Неизбежное падение. Курс гривны осенью 2019 года

The hryvnia to the dollar

Seasonal devaluation of Ukrainian national currency in the autumn season, observed in the last few years.

The hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar during the first eight months of 2019 held the championship as the pace of growth among other national currencies of the world. The hryvnia in September is also forecast with a plus sign, but to avoid seasonal drop this fall, it will not succeed, experts say. Корреспондент.net highlights details.

When the hryvnia to the dollar will start falling

In 2019, the hryvnia became the leader of the ranking of the world’s currencies against the dollar, strengthening for the first eight months against the U.S. currency by more than nine percent, breaking a three-year record.

Strong torque ensures relatively low prices for imported goods, but it is at odds with the real exchange rate, causing concern for economists.

Details about this and the reasons for the strengthening of the hryvnia and the factors that affect its rate Корреспондент.net described in detail in the material of Two scenarios: what will happen to the hryvnia in September.

According to analysts of the American Bank JP Morganin the near future the Ukrainian national currency may depreciate to 28 hryvnia in the fourth quarter of this year.

In the International monetary Fund also believes that the hryvnia will fall in autumn and in 2020 will reach 30 hryvnia per dollar.

Director of economic programs Razumkov Center Basil yurchishin says that the fall will begin repayment of short-term bonds that have a negative impact on the course.

“The fall should begin the first of the short maturity bond, 6-9 months. So I think soon we will see the weakening of the hryvnia. Very gradual, but with a certain acceleration. And at the end of the year we are obviously back to the level that was last year – somewhere in the 27.5-27.9 hryvnia per dollar,” – said the expert.

Analysts at Oxford Economics predict that the hryvnia exchange rate this year will fall to 28.5 per dollar.

Head EXANTE Ukraine Vladimir Godforsaken also believes that significant growth of the dollar will start after September.

“Perhaps the bounce of the dollar against the hryvnia will continue in September and will potentially last for several months, beginning growth to the upper boundary of the range of recent years – 28 per dollar. In September, in particular, a possible pullback in area 26”, – said the expert.

Because the dollar will start to rise by late October – early November due to the repayment of the loans, agrees the international economic expert, Chairman of the social organization of national interests of Ukraine Igor garbaruk.

“After this period provided large payments of Ukraine according to obligations to foreign creditors. Also, this period is characterized by the purchase of foreign currency by agricultural producers who need to repay their own loans,” obyasnite economist.

 

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