The NBU is called the risks of slowing economic growth

В НБУ назвали риски замедления роста экономики

Danylyshyn is sure that under certain conditions the Ukrainian economy may grow by 4% per year

The main engine of economic growth in 2018 will remain private consumption, said he.

The deterioration in external economic conditions trade, in particular through the “trade war”, as well as fiscal dominance are the risks of slowdown in the economy of Ukraine. On Wednesday, August 15, said the head of the National Bank Council Bohdan Danylyshyn on Facebook.

“Now we must consider the conditions that preserves the risks of slowing economic growth in Ukraine, including due to possible deterioration of external conditions of the trade, in particular because of the “trade wars“ and tight monetary conditions that may lead to the contraction of international trade and reduced demand for products of Ukrainian exports; fiscal dominance, which may limit public investment and increasing debt burden, impeding economic development of the country in the medium term,” writes he.

He recalled that, in General, to 2018 assessment of real GDP growth ranges from 3,2% -3,5%. The following year forecasts are also optimistic for 2019, the IMF predicts GDP growth in Ukraine by 3.3% world Bank 4%, the NBU is 3.5%.

“However, for GDP growth at 4-6% of Ukraine need to ensure the level of investment 20% of GDP. Currently, the state investment to 2% of GDP, foreign direct investment to 2 billion dollars”, – said the head of the NBU Council.

According to him, the main engine of economic growth in 2018 will remain private consumption.

“First, will continue high growth in real wages, prostomolotova active migration processes. Second, mitigated by fiscal policy, including by further improving social standards. Also, like last year, will continue the active investment activity of enterprises”, – said Danylyshyn.

At the same time, he said that the IMF and the world Bank predicts that the deterioration in the terms of trade improve the current account deficit of the balance of payments this year to 3.7% of GDP, and next – to 3.3-3.5% of GDP.

“To accelerate economic growth to 4% or more in the next two years need to maintain macroeconomic stability and to complete the reforms by the creation of a land market, improvement of the financial sector, combating corruption and privatization. It is advisable to reform state-owned enterprises, to form a transparent and effective gas market, including a significant reform of Naftogaz, to ensure the protection of property rights”, – says the head of the NBU Council.

These reforms, he said, will stimulate investment and productivity. Otherwise economic growth may slow down.

Note, according to the state service statistics, in the second quarter of 2018, the GDP of Ukraine amounted to 3.6%, while in the first quarter growth rate was lower at 3,1%.

 

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