The rating of the presidential candidates: who is winning the presidential race 2019

Рейтинг кандидатов в президенты: кто лидирует в предвыборной гонке 2019

Very soon Ukraine will hold presidential elections that will largely determine how Ukrainians will live in the next five years.

At such moments, I’d like to know which of the candidates most likely to reach the finish line first. To help answer this question should the ratings of the presidential candidates that spend different sociological services.

However, what numbers can be trusted, given that a month before the election the polls may vary too much? The informant talked with the specialists of the Ukrainian sociological portal, who prepared the results of his own survey, which took place two months before the end of the race.

Now, when to elections remains a little time, increasingly, the survey results raise reasonable doubt. That is why it was decided to conduct a sociological survey. Participation in it took 2 500 respondents of different ages from different regions of the country.

WHO IS NOW LEADING IN THE RACE

According to the sociological survey of the Ukrainian portal of 21.3% of respondents have not yet decided on their candidate. Generally, in the survey leader Yulia Tymoshenko (she is ready to vote to 15.9%). In second place is Vladimir Zelenskiy, which is behind first place by two percentage points. Rounded out the top three Yuri Boyko with 10.1% of virtual votes. Very little gleaning to 10% of current President Petro Poroshenko (9.4 per cent). The most interesting conclusions can be drawn for the other two participants in the race. So, support only 9.4% of respondents should cause concern among Petro Poroshenko, because it means that he does not fall to the second round.

At the same time, according to Nikolay Spiridonov, leadership, Tymoshenko is quite logical, since she led in all opinion polls over the last year. It is so hard to believe recent ratings, which leads Vladimir Zelensky. However, as noted by experts – ratings is not the most important. In a young democracy, which is now in Ukraine, in the first place is the ability to protect the election results. And here, said Spiridonov, Zelensky problems. Unlike other leaders of the race, unknown to the team and the party, which will be based comedian and actor. This makes the chances of reaching third briskly around Zelensky and reach the second round.

Рейтинг кандидатов в президенты: кто лидирует в предвыборной гонке 2019

 

 

HOW PEOPLE JUDGE THE GOVERNMENT

A significant part of the survey was devoted to how the Ukrainians estimate the work of the current government. Among the key issues: who is responsible for the current situation in the country, how successful were the reforms and whether the country needs a radical change.

Reforms over the past five years was not too much, and those that were – largely failed. At least, about it tell results of poll – 76,6% of Ukrainians adhere to this opinion and only 7.8% of respondents felt the reforms rather successful. The most successful reforms recognized military reform (23,7%) and decentralization (19%). At the other extreme of settled judicial reform (1.4%) and the historic event that is not scored and the percentage.

Who is responsible for such reforms? The majority of respondents (38%) believe that responsibility lies with the President. A quarter of respondents laid the responsibility on the Prime Minister, and 23.2 percent are considered guilty Verkhovna Rada. Only 6.3% of people called guilty of the ills of the country local authorities. In General, according to experts, the President’s influence on the success of the reform is much higher than 38%. This is due to the high Patriarchal authority.

AS THE RATING REPRESENTS A CHANCE TO WIN

Artem Gorbenko, and Nikolay Spiridonov noted that ratings do not fully reflect the real chances of candidates to win. The final figures may differ due to different turnout among different age groups. And from this point of view, another problem may arise from Vladimir Zelensky. In fact, said Nikolay Spiridonov, what is the basis of the electorate of the comic are young people, who traditionally are not very willing to go to the polls. At the same time, the audience Tymoshenko much more responsibly and smartly refers to the will.

 

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