Traders await $100. Why rising oil prices

Трейдеры ждут по $100. Почему растут цены на нефть

Forecast on oil prices

International oil traders are predicting further growth of quotations of U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The price of oil Brent for the first time since November 2014 has surpassed 82 $ per barrel. Now the major trading houses predict a jump in oil prices in 2018.

Such a spike is trying to prevent the US President Donald trump, requiring OPEC to increase production. However, the cartel is not going to yield to US demands about the rapid decline of oil prices. Коорреспондент.net tells details.


Oil rising on OPEC meeting

23 September Algeria hosted a meeting of OPEC (organization of countries-exporters of oil) and its partners, which has rejected the demand trump the immediate increase in oil production.

The purpose of the summit was to continue the work of the Algiers agreement, which was concluded in September 2016. Then it was decided to cut oil production to 32.5 million barrels per day in conditions of internal and external pressures that aimed at increasing the volume of production.

It is reported that the new decision will be made at the next summit of the OPEC which will take place in December in Vienna. The reason for this was the preparation of sanctions against Iran, which, Wed 5 Nov. According to experts, the sanctions will lead to the fact that the oil market every day will lose about two million barrels.

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The United States authorities in the spring are working with the buyers of middle East oil by encouraging them to change the supplier not to be subject to secondary sanctions of Washington.

At the summit in Algiers by the participants, who stressed that the main goal of OPEC is to maintain the balance of the world oil market.

Saudi Arabia (largest oil producer in OPEC) and Russia (the largest producer of oil, which is not included in OPEC) ruled out an immediate additional increase in oil production.

November futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange on the morning of 24 September, the prices in dollar (1.28%) to 79.81 per barrel. By the end of the day he broke the mark at $ 81. On 25 September the price of Brent overcame $ 82, but later fell back slightly.

Трейдеры ждут по $100. Почему растут цены на нефть


Recall that from mid-2017 to mid-2018 and oil prices have grown 1.5 times – from $ 50 to $ 75 per barrel.

OPEC also prognosis that world energy demand will increase by 33 percent by 2040.


Traders predicts $ 100 per barrel

Leading trading house for the first time since 2014 predicts the return of oil prices at level 100 dollars for barrel, writes Bloomberg.

The stubbornness of OPEC, coupled with signs of reduction of supply from Iran has generated optimistic and very snooty mood at the annual meeting of the Asian representatives of the oil industry, traders, refiners and bankers, which began on 24 September in Singapore, the newspaper notes.

“The market there is no response to a possible decline in the fourth quarter the volume of supply of two million barrels a day. In my opinion, we can not exclude a price jump above $ 100 per barrel”, – said at the Asia-Pacific oil conference co-founder Mercuria Energy Group Daniel Yegge.

Amid rising oil prices, the Russian currency strengthened against the dollar and the Euro. So, the dollar was down 0.9 percent to 65,82 ruble and the Euro by 0.8 percent to 77,45 of the ruble.

Iran will produce significantly less than before, and certainly less than many expected at the time of the imposition of sanctions, said the co-Director of the oil trading division of Trafigura Group Ben Lacock at the conference. According to him, for Christmas, the price of oil will rise to $ 90, and by the beginning of 2019 to $ 100.

Due to the economic crisis also led to a decline in production in Venezuela. Shale production in the United States, which became the largest new source of supply, is also faced with increasing difficulties because of problems with the piping and labor shortages impeding growth of mining.

The head of commodities research at Bank of America’s Francisco Blanch, said that the signals from OPEC indicate “the probability of a jump in oil prices, and in these conditions increases the likelihood of the collapse, which was in 2008.”

We are talking about a situation when Brent surged to almost $ 150 per barrel, but a few months later collapsed due to the global financial crisis.

The growing trade war between the US and China poses a threat to economic growth in Asia, and instability in developing countries may enhance the effects of higher prices on global demand growth, Bloomberg reported.

Against the background of rising oil price the ruble strengthened. On the Moscow exchange, the dollar fell to 65.69 ruble, Euro – ruble to 77,26.

However, experts say that oil at $ 100 does not mean that the ruble will return to its previous achievements, when the dollar is about 35 rubles.

“If you had observed a direct correlation between the behavior of oil prices and the value of the national currency, but now we almost do not observe. The dominant factors are the risks associated with sanctions, the loss of Russian investors, who are rapidly going to force it out of the country,” Kommersant quotes the expert.


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