Ukraine was at risk of a currency crisis

Украина оказалась в зоне риска валютного кризиса

Analysts predicted the currency crisis in Ukraine

Japanese analysts have included Ukraine in the list of countries at risk of a currency crisis.

At the moment the risk of a currency crisis exposed the seven emerging economies – Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine. This is stated in the review of analysts of the Japanese Nomura Holdings, reports Bloomberg.

It is noted that five of these countries (except South Africa and Pakistan) are already experiencing a currency crisis or run the program from the International monetary Fund.

The least risk of crisis-affected eight countries of emerging markets is Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Philippines, Russia and Thailand, according to Bank analysts.

“Given that investors are paying more attention to the risks of emerging markets, it is important to unite all countries of the emergency market in homogenous group. The model revealed a long list of countries where the likelihood of a full-scale crisis, a very small,” – said in the report.

Nomura analysts came to this conclusion using a model of early detection of possible currency crises called Damocles, which was developed for 30 developing countries.

The model uses various indicators, including foreign exchange reserves, debt levels, interest rates and imports.

Note, for the last two months the Ukrainian hryvnia devalued by approximately 10% – from 26 per dollar to 28.5.

In the last days in the currency market, there is a slight strengthening of the hryvnia. The official exchange rate on September 11 was set at the level of 28.2 hryvnia to the dollar.

 

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