Visa squeal: to be or not to be visas with Russia

Визовый визг: быть или не быть визам с РФ

Magazine Reporter understood who and what raises the issue of visas with Russia and what might be their implications.

Visas with Russia sooner or later will be introduced as soon as the authorities will again need to rally the right-wing electorate, or swing real problems of the country. Among the consequences, experts call a powerful blow to the Ukrainian economy and even a mass demand for “passport” LDNR, says Elena Gordeeva No. 22(766) magazine Correspondent.

The theme of the visa regime with Russia sounds 2014 – however, the authorities did not dare to go on creating problems for millions of workers. Today the situation has changed dramatically against a background of economic failures, the growth of prices and tariffs of the elite is increasingly resorting to “loud” ways to distract public opinion from the most acute social problems – at the same time rallying around nationalist asset and the right-wing electorate, directly in opposition to the “amorphous” masses of ordinary people.

The ban on Russian social networks and services has become the first such step in Kiev – the first problem was created not of individual businessmen or politicians, but from the tens of millions of users. Prior to that, the government tried to take an unprecedented in Europe, the law on “manual” control of the UOC of the Moscow Patriarchate, the audience of which is comparable with the Ukrainian segment of Facebook (20 million users). On stage it is a radical act of Ukrainization, which introduced a “language police” – another irritant for tens of millions of Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

The trend of the efforts of government gradually shifted to a narrowing of people’s rights, restrictions and prohibitions, which were not even in the bloodiest periods of the ATO. This suggests that politicians are less able to use the democratic tools to hold power.

The visa issue, which was raised recently, the Secretary of the NSDC, Alexander Turchinov the speaker of the Parliament Andrei Parubiy – from the same Opera. Millions of Ukrainians complicate entry in the neighboring state, where they earn three times-four times more than at home. Experts believe that the visa regime with Russia will introduce anyway, just this step will be dedicated to “the right moment”.

Visas on the aggressor

For the first time on the visa regime with the Russian Federation parliamentarians began in October last year. Then the speaker of the Parliament Andrei Parubiy said that Parliament may consider a bill. But from a standstill it did not move – then on the sidelines were talking about how that power will not be enough votes to support a decision. The passive position taken by President Petro Poroshenko.

A clear answer – in the event of the introduction of visas of Ukrainian migrant workers in Russia, nobody managed to give. And this spring the subject came up again.

Party “people’s front” again raised a question, it was supported by representatives of the Radical party, “Samopomich”, and also some deputies from “Blok Petro Poroshenko”. Those deputies who did not support, motivated by the fact that this has a negative impact on Ukrainians in occupied Crimea.

Talk talk, but this time it was much more serious.

June 1, the NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov made a statement that the visa regime will need to enter as soon as possible, because “the issue is not just ripe but overripe”. Supported Turchynov and the head of the SBU Vasily Gritsak, stating that the entry of Ukrainians in Russia and Russians in Ukraine should be made on the basis of passports.

The people’s Deputy from BPP Mustafa Dzhemilev says that in occupied Crimea, mainland Ukraine to visit only citizens with Ukrainian passports, which the visa regime will not apply.

“Of course there are unpleasant moments: our employees, who work in Russia, but on this side we have a war. So you’ll have to reckon with some costs,” – said Dzhemilev.

The adviser to the interior Minister Zoryan Shkiryak also confident in the effectiveness of the visa regime – it is now the formal reason for refusing entry of Russians into the territory of Ukraine, the visa regime will allow much better control of border crossing by criminal elements, “provocateurs” and “agents of the Kremlin”.

The Parliament planned to vote for the introduction of visas with Russia by the time of the entry into force of visa-free regime with the European Union until mid-June. But not in time.

The speaker of Parliament Andriy Parubiy admitted that consultations were underway, and as soon as there is voice – the speaker is ready to offer the corresponding decision on the appeal to the Ministry of foreign Affairs regarding the introduction of a visa regime.

Whole villages of migrant workers

While on Bank firmly convinced of the correctness of this decision, the situation on the ground looks different.

According to various estimates in Russia are now from two to four million Ukrainians. The introduction by Ukraine of the visa regime is not so frightens them, as an asymmetrical move by Russia – namely, the introduction of exactly the same visa regime. About the readiness of the same response to Ukraine has said the Russian foreign Ministry.

And it is fraught with queues at embassies and consulates on the territory of Ukraine only five, the rupture of kinship and the problem with the workers. The latter, incidentally, count problem – a population census was conducted, the data of the state border service are not accurate because there are only a fixed entry and exit, and some categories of migrant workers live there for years. So the numbers range from two to four million.

Catherine of Kirovohrad region for six years, goes to Moscow to work in the profession she was a seamstress in Moscow sews clothes for one of the well known brands.

“Seven years ago I was left a widow with a baby. Friends offered to go, so I went – but where to go? If there are orders – in 25 – 30 thousand hryvnia money. Where I here a salary?” – the woman tells.

Over the years, in Russia, Catherine bought an apartment in his native district, car, daughter now teaches at the University. If you introduce visas with Russia, Katya is willing to pay for the visa and to work on – there’s no other way.

Anna E. is 50, two years ago, she left her job at the country club and moved to Rostov, as a housekeeper.

“I, of course, for Ukraine, and I understand that there is a war. But the son a daughter a mortgage. Took the credit in dollars at the rate of 8, and you need to give at the current rate. Daughter-in-law can’t come – two young children, son’s back hurt so I got up and went. The work found a classmate,” says the woman.

Some Patriotic friends tried to accuse of being unpatriotic – but all attacks woman jokes that undermines the economy of the aggressor from the inside.

“What do I do if kids can’t consistently every month to pay the Bank. The Bank took all the documents, does not allow to issue a grant, is constantly threatened. Has reached that employees of the Bank can middle of the night to come to inspect the apartment. I understand that war, but unless someone helps that my children will be on the street?” – says Anna Evgenievna.

Victor from White Church is going to Russia. Working together with a team to construction sites.

“Waiting for the second year, when work will be. Call the guys there and they say that like work is, the object took, and money for construction there, more idle than at work. Now take another object, like promise something. If you call – at the end of the month will go”, – says the man.

Friends asked Victor to go to Europe, but the man says cannot withstand local orders. The work in Poland or seasonal work in Finland is more reminiscent of slavery – 12-hour day without rest or break, and the presence of the overseer of the work do not contribute. In Russia there are no such problems.

“My neighbor was in Poland, worked at the fish plant told me what’s the hell. Worked from 7 am to 9 PM seven days a week. Hands on night put on the pillow to rest, but do not have time to relax, her back ripped off. And paying the same as us in St. Petersburg. We were working on a high – we and rest time, and work, and made friends with the Russians,” – says Victor.

The introduction of visas, many workers called the government’s attempt to impose additional tax. Many are willing to pay, just to continue to ride on their homes.

Settlement of Ukrainians in Russia

A journalist from Lipetsk Evgeny Federacin says that in the Lipetsk region already there are entire villages of Ukrainian migrant workers.

“Every day I go to work and meet in the Lipetsk group of workers – judging by the dialect of the Western Ukraine. They here rented a house to live and work. For workers from Ukraine to Lipetsk Roshen bought 20 apartments in the city. The factory has suspended the work, and these apartments now rent out the Lipetsk residents. Moreover, in some areas there are whole villages of migrant workers – this is in the Dankov district. The local authority says that the village is lost – local lazy right now. Our government explicitly says Ukrainians – maybe even you, our village will raise! Give the land, abandoned farms, open lines of credit. And the visitors have elbows to move, to settle, to make – people in extreme conditions is capable of much. And then invite her, from the Ukraine for agricultural work”, – told the Correspondent of Federacin.

According to him only in Lipetsk was officially registered 17 thousand refugees. More than 80% of them settled in the villages. Slowly catching up to them compatriots. And not always from the occupied territories or frontline.

Soft Egyptian version

Will there be visas with Russia is a moot point. Almost all experts estimate the chances as 50/50. After the ban on Russian social networks, government is quite capable of such a step. That’s only going to hit this decision was primarily for ordinary Ukrainians.

President of the Ukrainian analytical center Oleksandr Okhrimenko has no doubt that the visa regime Russia would respond with a mirror.

“Some of the Ukrainians immediately want to relocate – some citizens, not wanting to lose their income, simply move to Russia. To lose its citizens easy, but to return them will not be easy. The comforting power of the workers of a visa-free regime with the EU, but it is right to work does not. But to issue legal working visa to work in the EU is very, very difficult On the website of the Ministry of labour as of 1 January 2017 was the information that legally in the EU are only 117 thousand Ukrainians. It’s not a million or two million, the figure is very small. So the state does not provide alternatives to the Ukrainian workers. This means that the people themselves will look for alternatives, in favor of Russia”, – said Okhrimenko.

Agree with him, political analyst Vadim Karasev says visa decision will cause an additional burden on the Ukrainian labour market.

“Will introduce a visa regime and that? What to do with millions of Ukrainians working in Russia? It will all fall on the shoulders of the government and Poroshenko’s block? Especially the lack of jobs in Ukraine, which may lead to riots. Work in the country by and large no. Businesses are closed, increasing the minimal salary was the reason for the job cuts, tax increase has also hit the labor market, and upcoming changes in the pension Fund. And investigators who will eliminate? The open question,” – said the Director of the Institute of global strategies Vadim Karasev.

Political analyst Alexei Yakubina sure that the visa regime with Russia can put an end to visa-free regime with the EU.

“We’re not a full-fledged visa-free regime with the EU, but only liberalization. And if tomorrow the crowds of unemployed workers from Russia will rush to the EU, we will simply lose this liberalization, with a huge number of violations”, – says Yakubina.

The visa regime with Russia, the analyst believes, calling it “political games”.

“This initiative of the popular front is a trap of radicalism for Petro Poroshenko, which it will be difficult to escape. Exactly into the same trap Poroshenko pleased with the ban of social networks. Such traps radicalism aimed primarily at the voter. “People’s front” has lost its voters and rating and tries to sit in the same boat and Poroshenko – the President will not be able to play its key card early elections. Such proposals are raised with a political purpose – to derail the President’s rating, but they are not sent to fight or protect the country”, – said Yakubina.

More optimistic about the former Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Taras Chornovil.

“If we still a year or two ago I tried to limit the operation of Russian sites or talking about visas with Russia – we would not understand, to the extent that would introduce sanctions against Ukraine. Now this decision matured itself – in Kiev there is confidence in the international arena, we have efficient army, developed some consistency in the work of the SBU, we have experienced a number of serious internal crises. Plus changed the rhetoric of the European partners – if you had asked us not to tease “neighbor”, now talking about the visa regime with Russia in Europe to accept as normal. Therefore can make such decisions. Talk about it just now – when in force the agreement with the EU to abolish the visa regime. Bezviz, of course, the right to work in EU countries does not, but it greatly simplifies the job search, obtaining invitations, work visa and travel abroad. For example, the same as Poland officially stated that it would give work to two millions of Ukrainians,” – said Chornovil.

According to him, the visa regime with Russia will be introduced next year, and it is not a standard “Schengen” format, and softer.

“The visa regime is different – but somehow, when it comes about it is all I think about Schengen visas. Let’s take the Egyptian visa – where visa is on arrival at the airport. We all remember the queues at the embassies for Schengen visa. There is an American visa – when the visa does not authorize entry into the country, and gives only the right to a meeting with American customs. I think the visa regime with Russia will be in the spirit of the Egyptian scenario,” – said Taras Chornovil.

As for Ukrainian workers in Russia – for many this won’t be a problem. Professionals and people need a Russian visa will bring “the silver platter”.

The distribution of “passports” LDNR

The Chairman of the Board of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Kostyantyn Bondarenko says that with this step the Ukrainian government will increase the number of residents of the L/DPR.

“To introduce a visa regime is possible – just the Verkhovna Rada to adopt the corresponding resolution and the Cabinet of Ministers and a number of ministries to ensure its implementation. It is possible to calculate further steps of Russia. If you compare the number of Russians wishing to cross the border with Ukraine, with the Ukrainians, wishing to cross the border with Russia, sootnoshenie will be 1:8. Well, not attracted to Ukraine is now the majority of Russians, they can not understand and realize all the delights of our “dignity”. But the Ukrainians are going back to work – however, many Ukrainians from the Western regions, among them many of those who supported the Maidan. Now imagine the situation if in response Russia introduces a visa regime with Ukraine. All Ukrainians will be offered in the short term or to leave the territory, or to settle visa issues. Part of the Ukrainians, of course, will return home with not a Patriotic sentiment. A large portion – about 75% left. During the month the Federal migration service of the Russian Federation will hold a demonstration action to deport those who are not lucky. And then we appear clever young people who simultaneously across Russia offer employees a way out – for a small fee to issue citizenship of the DNI and the LC (it is no accident Putin has recognized the documents of these “republics”). How you think, how many thousands of people will increase the population of the breakaway republics? And will look like the subjects are not only Solovyov or of cooperation, but also on the European channels, which zarobitchanin from Kolomyja hotels in Tyumen will tell you how he became disillusioned with Ukraine and how he wanted to become a citizen of the NPT? It is also not clear what will happen with the Crimean one issued the Russian citizenship, others will not” – said Bondarenko.

According to the analyst, the Ukrainian politicians do not think about this plot development. They’re not effective policy, and spectacular picture – that the voter did not think of the essence, and we watched, listened, and said: “What a wise man! Immediately evident – the patriot! So they, the Muscovites!”

The actions of the authorities, there is no logic and there is a desire to simulate intense activity, in order not suspected of lacking patriotism.

According to Konstantin Bondarenko and blockade and the ban of social networks and possible visa regime – all is links of one chain – the lack of strategic thinking and the ability to simulate the situation.

“How can you not remember the saying: to spite of enemies a goat I will sell to the milk children drank,” notes the analyst.

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