The scientists do not believe that the leaders of Russia and the United States “agreed” about the escalation of the conflict.
In the East of Ukraine in recent days has aggravated the situation. The epicenter is located in Avdeevka, where because of the attacks incapacitated coke plant, which supplies heat to the city.
Curiously, the escalation of the conflict coincided with two significant events. The first is a telephone conversation between U.S. President Donald trump and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin.
The second visit of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in Germany, interrupted by the escalation of the conflict. Корреспондент.net asked the experts whether both events with the escalation of violence.
Putin and Trump not to Ukraine
That Putin and trump during the interview did not address the subject of escalation of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine, said the head of the Board of the Institute of Ukrainian politics Kost Bondarenko.
“The conversation is introductory, during which there were outlined the contours of future cooperation. Until then, while the US will not be formed the Council for national security, it is unlikely that trump will appear the vision of the Ukrainian perspective”, - said Bondarenko.
The word Putin, given that in Europe and the United States now return to the question of the lifting of sanctions, the intensification of the conflict is unprofitable, because it is tantamount to suicide.
“Aggravation, rather, the result of incomplete processes and deadlock, which came to Ukraine and presented to LDNR. Avdeevka has always been a hot spot, so it was there and aggravated the situation,” he said.
According to him, the longer will be ignored by the Minsk agreement, the more frequently will repeat a situation similar to the plant.
Kiev is preparing for martial law?
The international Affairs expert Andrew Buzarov also believes that these events are not connected.
“Conversation trump and Putin focused on economic issues, events in the Middle East. Ukrainian aspect is not a priority for them. A worsening in the Donbass on average occurs every two to three months. It’s just a coincidence”, he said.
If separatists in the area of Avdeevka went on the offensive, then we could say that there is some secret agreement, but nothing of this kind. On the contrary, over the last 2.5 years the situation on the demarcation of the front line has not changed, like an expert (in fact, the Ukrainian military has repeatedly reported on the number of settlements – ed.).
The root of the problem for this increase must be sought in the fact, who is profitable, the analyst believes.
“This aggravation is used in Russia and in Ukraine. Russia to force Ukraine to fulfill the Minsk agreements. And Ukraine, it is possible to declare the introduction of martial law or the introduction of a visa regime with Russia”, - said Buzarov.
A tough and bloody test
The Director of the Ukrainian Institute of analysis and management Ruslan Bortnik – a different view.
“Telephone conversation between Putin and trump and aggravation are directly linked. The current escalation is a kind of test the results of talks between Putin and trump. Relatively speaking, the validation of what they agreed,” he said.
Kind of this is an attempt to understand that what they were talking about and who will merge the information, and how to react to this, not only in Ukraine and Russia but also in Europe and in the United States.
“This is a very cruel, cynical and bloody test. Besides political I don’t see other reasons,” - said Bortnik.
The analyst also does not exclude that the aggravation can carry and distracting nature, as it switched Ukrainians from the discussion of tariffs and corruption to war.
Germany nothing to do with
No associated escalation of the conflict and interrupted by Poroshenko’s visit to Germany because he managed to conduct all scheduled meetings, I’m sure Andrew Buzarov.
“During the visit, he met with Merkel and spoke with the Ukrainian elite. The fact that he came back, the situation has not changed. A statement on the convening of three-pin groups do not have any influence on the situation in the Donbass”, - said Buzarov.
Agree with him and Bortnik, who believes that in this case, the aggravation would have started much earlier and would be more controlled.
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